MLB Odds, Betting Picks: Predictions for Tuesday’s Brewers vs. Pirates Matchup

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Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Derek Holland #49 of the Pittsburgh Pirates

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds

Brewers odds -155 [BET NOW]
Pirates odds +132 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 9.5 (-107o/-114u) [BET NOW]
Time Tuesday at 7:05 p.m. ET

Odds as of Tuesday at 9:20 a.m. ET and via Parx, which offers new customers a 20% profit boost + $500 risk-free wager on their first bet AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.


The Milwaukee Brewers look to make it two in a row against the Pittsburgh Pirates after rallying to tie the game with four runs in the ninth inning on Monday. The Brew Crew went on to win in extra innings when Eric Sogard drove Brock Holt in with a double.

Milwaukee will send right-hander Josh Lindblom to the mound on Tuesday and he’ll be opposed by Derek Holland for Pittsburgh.

Pirates Pitching Preview

Holland was signed to a minor league contract by the Pirates back in January. In 2019 he was 2-5 with an 8.10 ERA after splitting the season between the Chicago Cubs and the San Francisco Giants.

I’ve been a fan of Derek Holland going back to his days with the Texas Rangers. He’s been a capable lefty over the years, but his skills are clearly diminishing and the zip on his fastball is all but gone.

Brewers Pitching Preview

Lindblom makes his first start in in the majors since 2017 after pitching professionally the last two years in Korea. In 2019 he picked up a Most Valuable Player award after a 20-3 season, and his prowess more than likely earned him a trip back to the big leagues. Lindblom will look to draw on that recent success when he takes the mound on Tuesday.

Brewers vs. Pirates Betting Analysis

This play is strictly a fade of Derek Holland. I just don’t think he can get it done much longer at this level. Holland gave up 2.13 home runs per nine innings last season and also 4.8 walks per nine. This is not what you want when facing a team like the Brewers who finished seventh in home runs and second in walks drawn in 2019.

Using a pitcher with similar ability to Lindblom, I used my MLB betting model to project Tuesday’s game and the results showed a clear edge in favor of the Brewers. Pittsburgh’s extra-inning loss yesterday also created a possible situational spot that Pirates fans would not be happy to hear.

After losing the previous day in extra innings, the Pirates are 47-69 with a loss of 10.8 units. If we limit the time frame to 2018 and after, Pittsburgh is 6-10 for a loss of 4.7 units. I would much rather be in the Brewers clubhouse after rallying to score four runs in the top of the ninth and eventually winning the game versus that of the Pirates.

While I like the Brewers to win the game, I’m not thrilled with the juice I’d have to lay to back the favorites. Instead, I would like to isolate Holland and fade him in the first five innings.

Brewers vs. Pirates Pick

Parx Casino offers three-way action in its first five innings market where we have the option to select whether Milwaukee will be leading, losing or remain tied with Pittsburgh after five innings.

Odds to back Milwaukee to be leading after five innings are +100 and much more to my liking. I like its chances to be able to hold and carry that lead into the sixth inning on Tuesday night.

Pick: Brewers +100 (up to -110) to lead after 5 innings [Bet now at Parx. PA only.]

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