MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions: Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers (Wednesday, August 12)

White Sox vs. Tigers Odds

Odds as of Tuesday at 11 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The White Sox evened up their series with the Tigers with an 8-2 win on Tuesday thanks to homers from Eloy Jimenez and Edwin Encarnacion.

The win brought Chicago back to within one game of .500, while the loss moved Detroit one game behind Minnesota for first place in the AL Central.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

Chicago White Sox 

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The White Sox offense has been pretty good to begin the season, ranking in the top half of MLB with a .318 wOBA and 107 wRC+. The South Siders have been led by stars-in-the-making Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert, each of whom boast a wOBA over .350 and wRC+ above 130.

Chicago was strong against left-handed pitching in 2019 and has carried that form over into 2020, posting a 115 wRC+ in 115 plate appearances so far.

The White Sox should match up well against a struggling Matt Boyd Wednesday afternoon.

White Sox Projected Starter

Dylan Cease, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Cease turned things around in his last start, holding the Indians scoreless in five innings and surrendering just two hits. That said, Cease did struggle with his control in that outing and handed out five walks.

Although Cease has a lot of velocity on his fastball, it doesn't have a lot of movement. Opponents teed off on his heater to the tune of a .448 wOBA last season. That number has improved to .339 for 2020.

Cease had success with his curveball and slider in 2019 but he's been relying on his fastball more often this season so he'll need it to continue to improve if he wants to develop into an effective starter.

Detroit has been the fifth-best offense against fastballs in 2020 so Cease may want to mix and match more often against the Tigers.

Detroit Tigers

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

Detroit has surprisingly been ripping the ball to start the season. They rank ninth in the MLB with a .323 wOBA and 108 wRC+. The biggest surprise has been JaCoby Jones, who ranks fourth in all of MLB with .486 wOBA.

After tallying 11 homers in 2019, Jones already has five dingers to his name in 2020.

As I noted above, Detroit has enjoyed a lot of success against fastballs this season. The Tigers have already accumulated 9.3 weighted fastball runs and should be able to get to Cease, who throws his heater 50% of the time.

Tigers Projected Starter

Matthew Boyd, LHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Matthew Boyd has allowed 15 runs over his first 14.2 innings of work in 2020. He's been really struggling with his secondary pitches, especially his slider which has been tagged for two homers and has allowed a .487 wOBA.

Thats a big concern for Boyd for two reasons. 1) His slider is his go-to pitch and 2) The White Sox have been the best team in baseball against sliders so far this season with 5.7 weighted slider runs.

Boyd's curveball and slider haven't been much better, as each offering has yielded a wOBA of at least .390.

Bullpens

Both bullpens figure to be a little fatigued, as they've been called on for a combined 16.2 innings in the first two games of this series. My numbers suggest that his bullpen matchup is basically a wash.

Projections and Pick

I think Cease and the White Sox are a tad undervalued against the struggling Boyd on Wednesday.

The Tigers lost their No. 4 hitter C.J. Cron to a knee injury, leaving a big hole in the middle of their lineup. Considering the White Sox should match up well against Boyd, I'd lean towards the South Siders at -117 or better.

Pick: White Sox -117 or better

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