Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions (April 3)

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions (April 3) article feature image
  • The Yankees are favored over the Blue Jays on Saturday afternoon (1:05 p.m. ET).
  • New York's Corey Kluber will take on Toronto's Ross Stripling, and Brad Cunningham likes the Jays to put runs crooked numbers up early against the aging Kluber.
  • Get our full Yankees vs. Blue Jays pick and preview below.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds

Blue Jays Odds +145
Yankees Odds -170
Over/Under 9 (-121/+100)
Time 1:05 p.m. ET
TV MLBTV
Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings.

The Blue Jays started off their season with an upset of Gerrit Cole and the Yankees, winning 3-2 in extras on Thursday.

Toronto has one of the most powerful lineups in the American League this season, filled with young talent and seasoned veterans. They showed that in the opener and the Jays will have a great opportunity against an aging veteran in a hitter friendly park this afternoon.

The Yankees came into this season with incredibly high expectations, as they are heavy favorites to win the AL East. Losing on Opening Day with their ace on the mound is not the way the Bronx Bombers wanted to start their season.

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But they’ll have a good opportunity to get back on track offensively against former Dodgers middle reliever Ross Stripling.

Offensive Matchup

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have a stacked lineup from top to bottom. During the shortened 2020 season, Toronto finished in the top half of MLB in home runs, runs, wOBA, wRC+ and whole lot of other categories. Most of that success came against right handed pitching as well, as they were 10th in MLB in wOBA and wRC+. Teoscar Hernandez showed some of that power on Thursday with this bomb off of Gerrit Cole.

Teoscar Hernandez got ALLLLLL of this one

437 feet
110.3 mph off the bat pic.twitter.com/7zs8GNz2Cd

— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) April 1, 2021

The Blue Jays have a really good matchup against Corey Kluber, who is now 34 years old and has barely pitched the last two years after suffering consecutive season-ending injuries.

New York Yankees

The Yankees lineup is once again stacked in 2021 after finishing inside the top 10 in pretty much every statistical category in 2020. The Yankees didn’t make any upgrades to their offense during the offseason, but they also kept their entire lineup together. Unfortunately though, they will be without MLB’s home run leader from last season, Luke Voit, for at least the first month.

They’ll have a good matchup though against Ross Stripling who is mainly a fastball/curveball pitcher, which are two pitches the Yankees had a lot of success against last season.


Starting Pitching Matchup

Ross Stripling vs. Corey Kluber

2021 ZIPS Projected Stats (via Fangraphs)

Ross Stripling, RHP

2020 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Ross Stripling has spent most of his career with Dodgers, moving between the bullpen and starting rotation. He now gets a chance to be a full time starter in Toronto and I am not sure if that is a good thing for the 31 year old. He’s mainly a fastball/curveball pitcher, but boy did he struggle with his fastball last season.

He doesn’t have much velocity on it averaging only 91.7 mph and doesn’t have much control either because opposing hitters hit over .330 against it with a .490 wOBA. That’s going to be an issue against the Yankees, who were a top 10 team against fastballs last season.

The main issue for Stripling moving into the starting rotation is he’s potentially being exposed, because when you spend most of your career in the bullpen, hitters only get to see you once a game, but once they start to see you two or three times a game, they start to have more success. So, at age 31, Stripling is starting to trend downwards and will be have a tough matchup against the Yankees.

Corey Kluber, RHP

2019 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Corey Kluber’s 2019 & 2020 seasons were cut short after fracturing his right forearm in 2019 and a torn shoulder in 2020. He signed with the Yankees in the offseason in hopes to return to his former glory. However, the two time CY Young Award winner is now 34 coming off back to back arm injuries, so it’s hard to imagine he’ll return to his former self.

Even though Kluber is getting up there in age, his curveball is still elite. In 2018, opponents only had a .143 wOBA against it and struck out 77 times. However, the Blue Jays were the third best team in MLB against curveballs last season, so Kluber is going to have a tough matchup if he isn’t effective with the rest of his arsenal.

Bullpen/Defensive Matchup

The Yankees will have the advantage in the bullpen, but only slightly. Adam Ottavino is now on the Red Sox and Zach Britton is hurt for an extended period of time, so that leaves the back end of the Yankees bullpen really exposed once you get past Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green.

The Blue Jays were a bottom half of the league bullpen in 2020 and are likely to be the same boat in 2021. However, the front end of their bullpen is pretty talented with guys like Kirby Yates, Jordan Romano, David Phelps, and Rafael Dolis. Once you get past those guys though things get pretty dicey for Toronto.

Blue Jays-Yankees Pick

I think the Blue Jays lineup has fantastic matchup against Corey Kluber, who hasn’t seen significant game action in a really long time. They’ll matchup well against his entire pitch arsenal and if they can get to him early, will be able to expose the backend of the Yankees bullpen, which is pretty weak.

Since I have the Blue Jays projected for 4.67 runs, I think there is some value on the Blue Jays team total Over 4 runs at +100 odds (PointsBet).

Pick: Blue Jays Team Total Over 4 runs (+100)

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