Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 28: Can Cubs Continue to Flip the Script Against Cardinals, Wainwright?
Jeff Curry, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Nico Hoerner
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Saturday's slate of games, including how to bet the Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Both the Brewers and Cardinals lost on Friday – the Cardinals third straight defeat, and the teams remain a game apart in the NL Central standings.
After last weekend’s historic sweep at the hands of the Cardinals, the Chicago Cubs have the chance to turn the tables on their biggest rival – potentially sending St. Louis to the one-game Wild Card, rather than straight to the divisional playoffs, by winning the next two games.
All odds as of Saturday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The Cardinals bullpen is pretty banged up, throwing 16 combined innings during a 19 inning loss on Tuesday, followed by a short outing from Michael Wacha on Wednesday.
Andrew Miller has also surrendered 14 runs in his last 17.2 innings pitched.
Should you back the Cubs to pull another upset on Saturday?
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 3-3 against full-game moneylines and 2-4-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 8-4, and I finished up 3.2 units for the day.
It was another positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 98 cents against the nine sides that I played, gaining as much as 35 and 30 cents against the Rays F5 and full game spreads.
Each of my totals moved down by half of a run, which was welcome news considering that two of the three plays were unders.
MLB Betting Model for Saturday, Sept. 28
Today, the model recommends eleven full-game moneylines and nine moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, Giants, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Reds, Royals and Tigers (Game 2) as full-game plays. The model also likes the Angels, Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Reds, Rockies and Yankees as F5 plays.
As I mentioned on Thursday and Friday, it is time to bet on a couple of things in baseball, specifically:
- The worst teams in baseball, when facing winning teams:
The latter category presents fits the Orioles and Royals, and I’m always happy to go against Jhoulys Chacin.
The Marlins also barely miss the cut under that system, as the Phillies record is exactly 80-80, following their 14-inning victory against Miami on Friday.
But I do see substantial line value on the Marlins, and I’ll include them on what is turning into a very ugly card.
As for some slightly less repulsive teams, I will play the Cubs once again as Cole Hamels looks to prove his health heading into free agency.
Since returning from an oblique injury in August, Hamels has posted a 6.39 ERA (5.85 FIP, 5.53 xFIP), but he also has recorded a strikeout per inning despite the slightest decrease in fastball velocity:
Meanwhile, Adam Wainwright is rounding into playoff form, posting a 7-2 record with a 3.07 ERA (3.85 FIP, 4.44 xFIP) over his past 10 starts.
But he’s still a relatively average starter, at this point:
And I mentioned the Cardinals bullpen depletion before the jump today.
I have the Cubs projected closer to +135 than +175 for Saturday, and would bet them down to +150.
A couple of potential plays that I’ll likely be avoiding include the Angels and Mariners.
I have made clear how well the Athletics hit left-handed pitching, and all of the positive trends associated with that, but Marco Gonzales has handled their lineup quite well – tossing at least six innings in four starts against them this season – with three quality outings.
I think that this game is a full stay-away, but I do show clear line value on the Mariners.
A couple of positive and negative spot plays with line value include the Blue Jays and Indians.
The Rays celebrated their clinching a playoff spot on Friday – though they are still seeking home-field advantage against Oakland – whose magic number is down to two.
I don’t think that I can play the Cleveland Indians, who were officially eliminated on Friday and might be lacking motivation.
I also cannot back this depleted Angels lineup to score enough to beat Justin Verlander, particularly when the Astros lineup draws a left-handed pitcher. The Astros wRC+ against left-handed pitching still ranks as the best of this era.
I might, however, look to find a parlay piece to pair with the Yankees F5 moneyline.
Bets (so far) for Sept. 28
- Baltimore Orioles (+150) F5 Moneyline
- Colorado Rockies (+147) F5 Moneyline
- Chicago Cubs (+175) Game Moneyline
- Cincinnati Reds (-130) F5 Moneyline
- Kansas City Royals (+177) Game Moneyline
- Miami Marlins (+162) Game Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+187) Game Moneyline
- Toronto Blue Jays (+187) Game Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 9/28
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.