Spring Training is just around the corner, and rosters are getting closer and closer to being set for the season ahead. As we get a better picture of how each MLB team's lineup and pitching staff will shape up, we can start to think about division races.
Prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for each team's chances of winning the NL West, with the Dodgers appearing as the overwhelming favorites.
You can trade on Major League Baseball and other sporting events, as well as thousands of additional markets, at Kalshi, which is available in all 50 states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here.
NL West Odds, Predictions
Odds are via Kalshi and update every hour.
Los Angeles Dodgers NL West Odds
Unsurprisingly, the defending World Series champions are favored to win this division for what would be the 13th time in 14 seasons. It didn't seem like the Dodgers would need to make a big splash this offseason — like they've done in years past with Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Blake Snell — to maintain their dominance, but that didn't stop them from doing so anyway. In a surprise move, they poached all-star closer Edwin Díaz from the Mets, bolstering the weakest part of their roster with arguably the best man available.
The Dodgers also have the luxury of returning most of the core pieces of their championship run. Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts will anchor a deep lineup, while Ohtani also looks to return to a full-time starting pitching role, alongside Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and more. As always, it's the Dodgers' division to lose.
San Diego Padres NL West Odds
While this Padres' core's best days may be behind them, there's a case to be made that they'd win another division in which the Dodgers weren't standing in their way. Fernando Tatís Jr., Manny Machado, and Jackson Merrill anchor what should be a very potent lineup, and GM A.J. Preller was able to retain Michael King to give them some stability at the top of their rotation.
Their biggest addition for this season may have actually come during last year's trade deadline, when the Padres dealt away top prospect Leo De Vries and others for a package centered around Mason Miller, one of the most dominant closers in the game. He headlines a powerful bullpen, along with lefty Adrian Morejon and righty Jeremiah Estrada, who combine to make the last three innings of a close ballgame more of a foregone conclusion.
There are still plenty of questions surrounding the rotation, with longtime ace Yu Darvish out for the year and doubts surrounding the outlook of oft-injured Joe Musgrove, but Preller has shown a willingness to upgrade his roster with the best pieces available when the need arises. If the Dodgers collapse, the Padres could take advantage.
San Francisco Giants NL West Odds
The Giants leapfrogged the Diamondbacks in the standings after Arizona decided to sell off its rental pieces at the deadline, and that momentum could extend into 2026. Logan Webb will return to anchor the rotation and is coming off the best season of his career, and President of Baseball Operations Buster Posey's staff picked up Tyler Mahle and Adrian Houser in free agency to serve as depth.
Their lineup should progress as well, even after bidding adieu to Mike Yastrzemski, as they'll have Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee, and Willy Adames in there close to every day. Plus, top prospect Bryce Eldridge is expected to win a starting job, so expect him to display some of the prodigious power that made him so highly-touted in the minor leagues.
San Francisco's roster is flawed, particularly in its positional depth and lack of stability in the bullpen behind Ryan Walker, but the Giants are more than capable of turning in a winning record in 2026. The division might be a long shot, though.
