Spring Training is just around the corner, and rosters are getting closer and closer to being set for the season ahead. As we get a better picture of how each MLB team's lineup and pitching staff will shape up, we can start to think about division races.
Prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for each team's chances of winning the AL Central, with the Tigers and Royals atop the table.
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AL Central Odds, Predictions
Odds are via Kalshi and update every hour.
Detroit Tigers AL Central Odds
After a historic collapse that ceded the division to the Guardians in 2025, the Tigers are looking more like the team that came back and vanquished Cleveland in the playoffs than the team that failed to lock down the division. As of this writing, Detroit has yet to make a big splash in either the free agency or the trade market to improve it roster, but neither has many of its division rivals.
Most of the team's efforts have been to upgrade a bullpen full of young arms, re-signing Kyle Finnegan to a two-year deal and bringing in veteran closer Kenley Jansen to serve as an anchor in the back end. The Tigers have been fortunate to have not lost any key pieces to free agency, but haven't augmented their lineup or rotation enough to avoid some of the pitfalls that befell them late last summer.
Kansas City Royals AL Central Odds
The Royals have made a conscious effort to improve their roster for 2026, but it's unclear whether it will be enough to surge past Detroit's talented core. While mostly avoiding the free-agent market, Kansas City has swung trades to acquire outfielder Isaac Collins, and relievers Nick Mears and Matt Strahm; all solid depth options, but no needle movers.
However, the Royals will be getting what should be two major additions to their rotation: healthy versions of Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic, who have both been some of the better left-handed arms in the league, but suffered rotator cuff strains last season. If the lineup, highlighted by Bobby Witt Jr., a newly-extended Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Pérez can keep up, this might be the year that the Royals make the leap.
Cleveland Guardians AL Central Odds
It might seem weird to see the team that won the division last year sitting this far down the list, but remember that it took a lot of other factors for the Guardians to achieve success. Of course, the Tigers' collapse was the big one, but based on Cleveland's runs scored and runs allowed, they won about eight more games than they should have in 2025.
And just like many of their divisional counterparts, they've done very little to improve a roster that, somewhat luckily, scraped together 88 wins last season. Their only major league signings, apart from bringing back backup catcher Austin Hedges on a one-year extension, have been three depth relievers, which don't improve the ceiling of this team one bit. It looks like they'll be running back the same José Ramírez-Steven Kwan-led offensive core, while hoping their rotation stays healthy enough to keep them in games.
