Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 7: Can Civale Help Indians to Prevail vs. Twins?

Sep 07, 2019 08:50 AM EDT

Bruce Kluckhorn, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Aaron Civale

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes Saturday's slate of games, including how to bet the Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (7:10 p.m. ET).
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

The Minnesota Twins (87-53) are 31-20 since the All-Star break with a +58 run differential; maintaining a 100 win pace and a 5.5 game lead over the Cleveland Indians (82-60) in the Al Central with less than 15% of the regular season left to play.

Cleveland is 31-22 (+68 run differential) since the break and leads the season series 7-6, but the Twins lead the scoring in those games 54-53; fitting for a pair of clubs who are relatively equivalent on paper.

The Twins have the potent offense, smashing various home run records in 2019 with a 33-11 record in blowouts;  while the Indians rely on pitching and defense – though they are 13-16 in one-run games.

With 20 games remaining on their schedule, the Indians are half a game behind the Athletics for an AL Wild Card spot, so gaining ground on the Twins isn’t of primary concern. But they still need these games and will send out a rookie pitcher on Sunday to try and secure a win.

Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 5-2 against full-game moneylines and 1-4-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

My plays went 3-6, and I finished down 0.99 units for the day.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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