Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 18: Back Samardzija, Giants to Upend Red Sox at Fenway?
Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jeff Samardzija
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Wednesday's slate of games, including how to bet the San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
At 79-71, the Boston Red Sox are all but officially eliminated from the 2019 MLB playoffs.
At this point, they would basically need to win out, and either the Indians or Rays would need to lose out in order for the Red Sox to make the Wild Card.
Without Chris Sale and David Price, the Red Sox have resorted to a spring training style pitching staff on any given day – trotting out a starter for three or four innings before giving way to the bullpen.
With a 4-6 record in their last 10 games, are the Red Sox still playing to make the playoffs, no matter how minuscule their chances, or are they packing it in for 2002?
All odds as of Wednesday morning. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-4 against full-game moneylines and 1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 3-5, and I finished down 0.57 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I lost eight cents overall against the sides that I played – netting 10 cents on one of my moneyline plays on the Rangers (+310 to +300) but losing 35 cents on the other (+265 to +300). I also gained 13 cents against the one total that I played.
MLB Betting Model for Wednesday, Sept. 18
Today, the model recommends six full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Giants, Mets, Padres, Reds and Royals as full-game plays. The model also likes the Giants, Mets, Reds, Royals and Twins as F5 plays.
As with Tuesday, I’m not backing the Angels, who are using a left-handed starter, against the New York Yankees.
To reiterate, the Yankees easily pace the league in wRC+ (150) against left-handed pitching since the All-Star break; and they pounded southpaw Jose Suarez for six runs after he entered Tuesday’s game in the second inning.
Another team who pounds left-handed pitching, the Oakland Athletics, draw another left-handed opponent today in Danny Duffy.
The Athletics’ updated trends vs. lefty starters since July 1, 2018:
- Moneyline: 48-21 (69.5%, +$2,132)
- F5 Moneyline: 42-19-8 (68.8%, $1,866)
- F5 Spread: 45-22-2 (67.1%, $1,754)
With their moneylines so heavily juiced for Wednesday, I opted to play Oakland on the F5 spread at a price of -160 or better.
Alternatively, I considered playing the Over on Oakland’s team total.
Overall, this “A’s vs. LHP” trend is the only one that I have continued to ride regardless of my projected line value — which I clearly show on the Royals side for Wednesday.
The only other player I made for Wednesday, where I no longer show line value, is on the Phillies against the Braves.
I’m not a really a fan of Zach Eflin (4.20 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 4.71 xFIP, 4.78 SIERA) but in a vacuum, his metrics are comparable to those of Julio Teheran (3.55 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 5.21 xFIP, 5.12 SIERA) – so I had to play a juiced number at +145.
The Phillies have been bet down to +131 as of writing, and I projected their fair odds at +123.
As for the two matchups that I bet in both halves (F5 and full-game moneylines), I selected the Reds over the Brewers and the Giants over the Red Sox.
Cincinnati will start Tyler Mahle (5.11 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 3.90 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA) who has been extremely unlucky this season.
Mahle pitched extremely well over a few starts at Triple-A, and Reds manager David Bell is encouraged by Mahle’s development.
The 24-year-old righty throws up to six or seven different pitches, but only his splitter demonstrates positive pitch value:
Tyler Mahle, Filthy 85mph Splitter. 😨 pic.twitter.com/qj6857KPkr
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 2, 2019
I’ll also continue to fade Jon Lester (4.59 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 4.39 xFIP, 4.51 SIERA) whenever he’s listed as a big favorite.
I see about 40 cents of line value on the Reds, either on the F5 or full-game moneyline.
As for the San Francisco Giants, I see over 20 cents of line value; either on the F5 or full game moneyline.
I previewed Jeff Samardzija on September 6, before he beat the Dodgers as a +260 underdog.
I mentioned that “The Shark” is exactly the type of enigmatic pitcher you want to back at a big plus-money price; because he can enter ace territory on any given night.
Meanwhile, Jhoulys Chacin (5.44 ERA, 5.49 FIP, 5.17 xFIP, 5.09 SIERA), like Lester, is one of my favorite pitchers to fade.
Chacin had an incredible run for moneyline bettors between 2017-2018 when he went 41-26 (61.2%, +$1,937) before declining in every which way this year.
Even if he only pitches three innings, that should be ample time to allow the Giants to get out to an early lead.
Bets (so far) for Sept. 18
- Cincinnati Reds (+150) F5 Moneyline
- Cincinnati Reds (+168) Game Moneyline
- New York Mets (-147) F5 Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (-0.5, -155) F5 Spread
- Philadelphia Phillies (+145) Game Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (+130) Game Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+137) F5 Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+150) Game Moneyline
- Over 10 (-115), White Sox at Twins
- F5 Under 5 (-118), Rangers at Astros
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 9/18
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.