Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 6: Can San Francisco Pull Giant Upset vs. Dodgers, Kershaw?
Photo credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jeff Samardzija
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Friday's slate of games, including how to bet Giants at Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
From July 22, 2018, to June 7, 2019, Clayton Kershaw didn’t lose a single baseball game.
He started 21 times during that 321-day span and went nearly a full year between losses, with the Dodgers winning 17 of those contests before the Giants beat him 2-1 behind a big effort from Drew Pomeranz.
Kershaw enters Friday on a two-game losing streak, and though he already gained his revenge against the Giants with seven shutout innings in a win on June 18, there’s probably no team he enjoys beating more.
Favorites higher than -290 are 43-14 (75.4%) on the moneyline this season, winning by an average margin of 2.72 runs — but they would have cost a consistent $100 bettor $85 on the year, and I think oddsmakers are too high on the Dodgers’ chances for Friday.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-4 against full-game moneylines and 2-1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 2-3, and I finished up 1.07 units for the day.