MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/3: The Overvalued Side on Dodgers-Diamondbacks

MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/3: The Overvalued Side on Dodgers-Diamondbacks article feature image
Credit:

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Walker Buehler

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the full slate of games on June 3 with his model below and highlights Angels-Cubs (4:10 p.m. ET) and Dodgers-Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

The 2019 MLB Draft is tonight.

The verdict on these prospects won’t be decided for quite some time, which is why you should never get too high or too low about who your team picks in the first round.

Mike Trout was selected with the 25th overall pick in the 2009 draft, one spot behind Randal Grichuk. You probably remember that draft because generational pitching prospect Stephen Strasburg went first overall.

Also of note, Dustin Ackley went second, Zack Wheeler sixth, Mike Minor seventh, Mike Leake eighth, A.J. Pollock 17th, Kyle Gibson 22nd and James Paxton 37th.

Trout has blown away the rest of that draft class:

But for all of the players who do make it, there are just as many who don’t.

Of the 49 players selected in the first round or first supplemental round in 2009, 14 failed to make the major leagues entirely. Thirteen of the 30 second-round picks also failed to make it to the big leagues, along with 17 of the 30 third-rounders, 20 of the 30 fourth-rounders and so on.

Who knows, maybe one day your team will snag a future Hall of Famer after 24 teams have already selected, and he’ll be doing stuff like this for your team:


Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-4 against full-game moneylines and 1-2 against moneylines for the first five (F5) innings.

My tracked plays went 3-7, and I finished down 2.12 units for the day.

Sunday was an overall negative in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 8 cents on the A’s moneyline (+128 to +120) and 5 cents on the Mets moneyline (+101 to -104), but¬†lost 14 cents on the Tigers moneyline (+145 to +159), 5 cents on the Cardinals moneyline (-105 to +100), 2 cents on the Reds moneyline (+112 to +114), and¬†finished even with the Yankees moneyline (+110).

None of the four totals that I played moved off of my number. I finished 2-2 on those.

On Deck for Monday, June 3

All odds as of Monday morning (view live MLB odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Monday, June 3. 

The model recommends one full-game moneyline and zero moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Monday.

As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Los Angeles Angels as a full-game play against the Chicago Cubs.

The Angels will use Cam Bedrosian as an opener today ahead of Trevor Cahill. Los Angeles is 4-3 when using Bedrosian, Luke Bard or Luis Garcia as an opener.

Always thought to be the Angels’ closer of the future, Bedrosian has one of the best sliders in the game, ranking eighth in total slider pitch value (+7.6) this season.

Jon Lester has also been hit hard in his last few starts, totaling: 13 IP, 25 H, 19 R, 4 HR, 5 BB and 11 K. His career xWOBA is .309, but Lester finished 2018 at .340 and is currently at .358 in 2019. He owns xFIP marks of 4.43 and 4.23 over the past two seasons, but the batted ball data suggests an expected ERA closer to 5.50.

I have the Angels winning this game 45% of the time, but they’re listed at a price that suggests a win probability of 41%.

Though I don’t see as big of a gap in projected win probability, I’m also willing to take the Diamondbacks against the Dodgers at a small edge.

Since the start of the 2017 season, Robbie Ray is 34-14-16 (71%, 22% ROI) on the first-half moneyline, 12-6-7 (67%, 32% ROI) as a F5 dog and 4-1-0 as a home F5 dog. He’s¬†often frustrating to watch — he can look like a Cy Young candidate one minute before suddenly coming apart as his command comes and goes.

Ray’s strikeout (11.78 K/9) and walk rates (5.03 BB/9) are in line with last season, as is his xFIP (3.87 vs. 3.77), but the ERA and FIP have dropped due to some positive home run regression.

Ray owns a career 13.5% HR/FB rate. It was at 17.4% in 2018, and he gave up 19 home runs in 123.2 innings (1.38 HR/9). That HR/FB rate is down to 9.4% this season, and the HR/9 rate is down to 0.72.

With big lefty bats like Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy, the Dodgers are 23% above average against righties (first in wOBA and wRC+), but just 9% above average against lefties (eighth in wOBA, 7th in WRC+),

Ray dominates lefties, with a career .281 wOBA against same-side hitters, but a .328 wOBA against right-handed batters. He throws his fastball and slider more than 85% of the time while occasionally mixing in a curveball.

Arizona had a very strange May, going 11-17 despite a +19 run differential. The Diamondbacks are +48 on the season, just ahead of the Cubs (+46), and have the second-best differential in the National League behind the Dodgers (+94).

Take away their 1-3 start in March (-20 runs), and the differential since April 1 (+68) looks even sharper.


Bets (So Far) for June 3

  • Arizona Diamondbacks (+139) F5 Moneyline
  • Los Angeles Angels (+145) Game Moneyline
  • Over 7.5 Philadelphia at San Diego

Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Monday, June 3.


Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/3

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.