Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/25: Can Alzolay, Fried Limit Home Runs at Windy Wrigley Field?
Kamil Krzacynski, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Adbert Alzolay
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 25 with his model below and highlights Braves-Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET) and Rays-Twins (8:10 p.m. ET) as a potential edge.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Zack Greinke did his thing on Monday night, extending his home underdog run to 6-0 since 2017 while adding another tally to his first five-innings win column.
After a rocky first inning he was flawless both on the mound and at the plate:
Greinke's HR perfectly set up by Joe Davis. <audio>
Greinke should be a HOFer just for that timing. 😃 pic.twitter.com/UkZv6D7x9x
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 25, 2019
Greinke hasn’t just been one of the best hitting pitchers in baseball this season; in a small sample he’s been one of the best hitters period;
Zack Greinke is now barreling the ball on 10% of his plate appearances this season. Only 24 other players with 25 PA are doing that. pic.twitter.com/cBDARtS4Xs
— Daren Willman (@darenw) June 25, 2019
That’s not to say that he doesn’t need the help of his teammates. Shortstop Nick Ahmed showed off his gold-glove ability with a potentially game-changing snag with the game tied in the eighth inning:
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) June 25, 2019
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-3 against full-game moneylines and 1-2-1 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 4-2, and I finished up 1.13 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained five cents on the Arizona moneyline (+120 to +115) and against the under that I played (-110 to -115), but finished even with the Arizona F5 line, and lost eight cents on the Giants moneyline (+100 to +108).
MLB Betting Model for Tuesday, June 25
Today, the model recommends six full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Cubs, Marlins, Mets, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox as full-game plays. The model also likes the Cubs, Marlins, and Tigers, in addition to the Mariners and Rays as F5 plays.
I had considered playing the Tigers at home. However, Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann dealt with UCL sprain in April and only made it through four innings in his first start back.
His velocity and command have slowly dwindled this season, and his elbow could be a ticking time bomb. I’ll pass.
If he’s right, Blake Snell and the Rays are a clear value today against the Twins. Snell recorded just one out in his last start against the Yankees, failing to make it out of the first inning for the first time in his career.
In June he has 18 strikeouts against 11 walks in 14 innings but has also allowed 19 hits and 17 runs. He also hasn’t recorded a swing and miss in the strike zone during his past two outings.
But there aren’t any warning signs in his profile. Snell claims that he needs to be more aggressive with his fastball; an offering he has used 10% less often this season than in 2018.
I’ll just play the Rays on the full-game moneyline, as Minnesota has been the most profitable F5 team (42-25-10, +$1,001, 13% ROI) in 2019.
The total (12) in the Cubs-Braves game seemed extremely high. The wind is certainly blowing out at Wrigley, but two good young arms are going in this game and umpire Lance Barksdale is under-friendly (55.8%, +34 units, 8.6 runs per game).
Barksdale has an even strong lean to home teams (60.4%, +49 units) which should only boost the chances for Chicago’s young right-hander Adbert Alzolay.
The 24-year-old owned a 49:8 strikeout to walk ratio in 36 innings at Triple-A prior to his call-up, where he pitched four innings of relief in a victory over the Mets:
Adbert Alzolay's MLB Debut:
4.0 IP 1 H 1 ER 2 BBs 5 Ks
— Dan (@DanSchmuldt) June 21, 2019
Alozlay likely would have made the big leagues in 2018 but his season ended prematurely due to a lat injury. He’s a strike-thrower with a plus fastball (sits 94-96 mph) and curveball, with an average changeup.
Despite being known as a flyball pitcher he’s also limited the long ball, allowing just 0.7 home runs per nine innings over seven seasons in the minor leagues.
Max Fried (3.98 FIP, 3.52 xFIP) has pitched well for the Braves in his age-25 season and has shown a similar ability to limit home runs.
I’ll side with the umpire here and take both Under 12 (I project a weather-neutral game at 9.5 runs) and the Cubs on the moneyline.
I also like under 10.5 in Baltimore as Logan Allen makes his second career start for the Padres. I projected that total around 9.5.
I previewed Allen before his first major-league start on June 18 and was impressed with what I saw. I might consider taking the Padres against either the F5 or game spread too.
Additionally, I like the under 9.5 between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks (projected 8.5), with Ross Stripling making his return to the Dodgers rotation.
Lastly, I made a rare two-leg parlay using the Nationals (vs. the Marlins) and Astros (vs. the Pirates).
Gerrit Cole (2.55) and Max Scherzer (3.02) rank first and fourth respectively by xFIP, and 11th and 1st respectively by FIP. They are each arguably the best pitcher in each of their respective leagues.
With a 16% swinging strike rate, Cole is in the midst of a career year. Completely abandoning his two-seam fastball has been his biggest change since joining the Astros prior to the 2018 season.
Bets (So Far) for June 25
- Chicago Cubs (-105) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-105) Game Moneyline
- Under 10.5, San Diego at Baltimore
- Under 12, Atlanta at Chicago
- Under 9.5, LA Dodgers at Arizona
- 2-Way Parlay (+100): Astros Moneyline (-270) and Nationals Moneyline (-215)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/25
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.