Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/18: Rays-Yankees Preview, More
Kim Klement, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Travis d’Arnaud, Ryne Stanek
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 18 with his model below and highlights Rays-Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET) and Padres-Brewers (10:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
On Monday, Matt Carpenter laid down one of the most productive bases-empty bunts in the history of baseball:
Matt Carpenter just bunted for a double… yes, you read that correctly! pic.twitter.com/mtJUNpG4ji
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) June 18, 2019
Now see if you can locate that hit on his career spray chart:
— Daren Willman (@darenw) June 18, 2019
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-1 against full-game moneylines and 1-1 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 4-0, and I finished up 2.65 units for the day.
It was a negative day in terms of Closing Line Value (CLV), ironic as it was my biggest winning day in a while.
I lost 11 cents against the San Diego moneyline (-128 to -117) and 3 cents against Boston’s moneyline (+130 to +133), but netted two cents against totals; neither of which moved off of the number where I played them.
MLB Betting Model for Monday, June 17
Today, the model recommends seven full-game moneylines and six moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, and Tampa Bay Rays as full-game plays.
The model also likes the Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Rays, and Tigers, in addition to the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays as F5 plays.
I selected all of the teams that didn’t involve the usual suspects: Baltimore, Detroit, Miami, and the White Sox.
I only selected the Padres in the first half due to potential bullpen fatigue following their series in Colorado. Additionally, I’ll look to avoid Josh Hader and the Brewers bullpen whenever possible.
San Diego is going to be a very contrarian play today with rookie Logan Allen making his major-league debut against 8-1 Brandon Woodruff.
Allen is a 22-year-old lefty who was named the Texas League pitcher of the year at Double-A in 2018. He finished the season with a 2.54 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A and led the Padres system with 14 wins and 151 strikeouts:
Though he carries a 5.15 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in the Pacific Coast League (“PCL”) this season, you need to remember that Allen is both young for the level and pitching in perhaps the most offense-friendly environment in baseball.
For example, Noah Syndergaard pitched to a 4.60 ERA and 1.48 WHIP at his first go-around in the PCL.
Allen’s 63:22 strikeout to walk ratio in 57.2 innings this season indicates that he has a strong command of the strike zone.
He shows good command of both his fastball (92-94 mph) and plus-changeup, while aggressively attacking righties on the inner half of the plate. Allen also throws a curveball and slider, with a better feel for the latter.
He is a high-floor pitcher who has erased any durability concerns by ramping up his workload (125 IP, 148.2 IP) over the past two seasons.
I also like a lot of angles in the Tampa Bay Rays game today. Not only are the Rays showing an edge in my projections, but they’re also in a profitable spot based upon a few trends:
For one, they’re facing another left-handed pitcher, which I have remarked on repeatedly this season.
They’re also an underdog, which has been the spot to bet Tampa Bay over the past two seasons. Since the beginning of 2018 the Rays are 79-54 as a moneyline favorite (-$80, -0.6% ROI), but 54-47 as an underdog (+$2,490, 24.7% ROI).
In divisional games, they have gone 28-28 as an underdog (+1,041, 18.6% ROI) over the same period.
Tampa Bay has also been the most profitable team in baseball as a first-half underdog, going 49-36-18 (+2,716, 27% ROI) against F5 moneylines since 2018. They’re 9-5-2 in 2019.
I split a unit between the moneyline for the first-half and full-game, and also played Under 9.5 on a total which has taken considerable public action on the over but seen professional steam and reverse line movement come in on Under 10.0 and 9.5.
I projected that total at 8.7.
Lastly, I want to touch on the Phillies-Nationals game today.
On June 11 I discussed Jake Arrieta and his declining skillset, so it seems curious that I would back him on the road against a division rival.
But the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin has regressed in 2019 after what seemed like a 2018 breakthrough, garnering him a 6-year, $140 million deal from the Nationals.
Take a look at how Corbin’s statistical profile has evolved since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2015:
2018 looks like the outlier season. Corbin actually started throwing a curveball 9% of the time last season. In 2019 that usage has been cut in half, and he also made a conscious effort to decrease his slider usage.
I’m not completely sure as to why. His breaking balls play off of one another in a complementary way, with the curveball functioning as an offspeed version of the slider:
Patrick Corbin, Disgusting 3 Pitch K (66mph Curveball & 2 Swords on Sliders). 😧⚔️⚔️ pic.twitter.com/XR3NxtAlm8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 18, 2019
Corbin’s combined four-seam fastball and sinker usage in 2019 is back up to 55%, (48.6% in 2018), slightly higher than it was in 2017 (53%).
It will be interesting to see if he reverts to his 2018 pitch mix in an effort to regain that form.
Bets (So Far) for June 18
- Boston Red Sox (-105) F5 Moneyline
- Philadelphia Phillies (+144) Game Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (+155) F5 Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (+138) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (+125) F5 Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (+110) Game Moneyline
- Toronto Blue Jays (+115) F5 Moneyline
- Under 9.5 (+100), Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/18
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.