Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/27: Can the A’s Keep Pace on the Road?

Before we dive into how I’m betting today’s baseball slate, let’s first celebrate the #VandyBoys, who won the Men’s National Championship on Wednesday, defeating Michigan, 8-2, in Game 3 of the College World Series Finals.

It is Vanderbilt’s second baseball title since 2014, and it broke a pretty impressive record along the way:

It’s also validation for a program which has fed a lot of top-tier talent to the major league draft in recent years:

Tyler Beede, Walker Buehler, Curt Casali, Carson Fulmer, Sonny Gray, Tony Kemp, Jared Miller, Mike Minor, David Price, Bryan Reynolds, Dansby Swanson, Drew VerHagen, Kyle Wright and Mike Yastrzemski are just some recent Vanderbilt players who are still at the highest levels of professional baseball.

That group, which includes numerous first-round picks, doesn’t even list Pedro Alvarez, a former All-Star and Silver Slugger (2013) who was drafted second overall by the Pirates in 2008 but is currently a free agent.

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Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-3 against full-game moneylines and 2-2 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).

My plays went 1-4, and I finished down 1.6 units for the day.

It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 14 cents against the Tampa Bay moneyline (-100 to -114) and four cents against the Marlins moneyline (+135 to +131), but lost seven cents against Detroit’s moneyline (-101 to +106).

One of the two unders that I played also moved my direction, from 10.0 to 9.5.

MLB Betting Model for Thursday, June 27

All odds as of Thursday morning (view live MLB odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Thursday.

Today, the model recommends three full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).

As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins and Oakland Athletics. The model also likes the Marlins and Tigers as F5 plays. 

I’m not getting in the way of Stephen Strasburg, who has continually tormented his NL East opponents.

I’m also not excitedly backing Spencer Turnbull today, who despite being extremely underrated does not have a good matchup against the Rangers.

Texas ranks 11th, with a 105 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but is 83rd with a 86 wRC+ against southpaws. It was amongst the top offenses overall (and especially vs. righties) before Joey Gallo’s three-week injury, and he’s now back in the lineup.

Turnbull also has noticeable platoon split, allowing a .349 wOBA to lefties (48 H, 17 BB, 30 K in 42.0 IP) compared to a .274 wOBA to righties (37 H, 16 BB, 51 K in 45.2 IP).

I did lock in Oakland at a big price against impressive youngster Griffin Canning and the Angels.

I was surprised to see that A’s starter and Harvard graduate Tanner Anderson owns better 2019 metrics than Canning:

• Anderson: 4.20 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 3.68 xFIP, .321 xwOBA, 86.1 mph exit velocity
• Canning: 3.88 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 4.63 xFIP, .291 xwOBA, 86.5 mph exit velocity

Anderson joined Oakland via trade from Pittsburgh during the offseason, and he has completely flipped his fastball usage with the A’s.

In 2018, Anderson threw his four-seam fastball 46% of the time, and his sinker 14% of the time. In 2019 he’s using the sinker on 64% of his pitches while decreasing the four-seam usage to 11%.

The result is a groundball rate that rounds up to 60% and a tremendous ground-to-air ratio (2.8) which also includes a bunch of popups (21%) on the flyball side.

He also has a unique delivery:

Canning owns an impressive 19% strikeout minus walk rate, averaging 4.4 strikeouts for every walk. His 15% swinging strike rate also points to further strikeout upside moving forward.

That being said, he’s shown a bit of a home run issue (10 HR in 55.2 IP) and has a BABIP (.238) and strand rate (79.2%) which are both due to regress toward league average.

In Chicago, I played what I consider to be a fair moneyline number (but not a true edge value) on the Braves at even money against the Cubs.

Tyler Chatwood has been largely ineffective with the Cubs, eating close to 150 innings over the past two seasons, but with a FIP close to 5.50 ,and xFIP marks of 4.46 in 2019 and 5.76 in 2018.

This season he has just 30 strikeouts against 22 walks in 39 innings pitched, displaying his lowest swinging strike rate (7.4%) since 2013. He generates a bunch of grounders (career 54.7%) but still gives up too many baserunners.

Meanwhile, the Braves have recalled MLB pipeline’s No. 73 overall prospect, 21-year-old Bryse Wilson, to make his first start since March.

A former football player, Wilson has a fearless mentality on the mound, aggressively coming at hitters with his sinking fastball, slurve-like slider and changeup:

He advanced from High-A to Triple-A in 2018, and took his early 2019 demotion in stride, pitching to a 3.79 ERA and 1.24 WHIP at Triple-A (79 K, 16 BB in 78.1 innings) in a league whose average age is 5.3 years his senior.

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Bets (So Far) for June 27

• Atlanta Braves (+100) Game Moneyline
• Oakland Athletics (+150) Game Moneyline
• Under 10.5 (-120), Seattle at Milwaukee
• Under 10.0 (-110), Tampa Bay at Minnesota
• Under 9.5 (-115), Pittsburgh at Houston

Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Thursday, June 27.

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Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/27

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.