Nationals-Marlins Betting Preview: Will Stephen Strasburg Continue His Dominance vs. NL East Opponents?


Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37).

Jun 27, 2019, 09:59 PM EDT
  • Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals (-190) face the Miami Marlins on Thursday at Marlins park (7:10 p.m. ET).
  • Over the last five seasons, the Nationals are 41-15 (73.2%) when Strasburg starts against a divisional opponent (NL East), the 2nd-highest win pct among starters with at least 50 starts in this spot.

Betting odds: Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins

  • Nationals moneyline: -190
  • Marlins moneyline: +175
  • Over/Under: 7.5
  • First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of Thursday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets

Since the beginning of the 2016 MLB regular season, Nationals ace Stephen Strasburg has led his team to a 63-27 (70%) record when he takes the mound.

Over that span, 142 different starting pitchers have started at least 50 games and only one starting pitcher has a better win percentage than Stephen Strasburg’s 70% mark. Clayton Kershaw, who has won 77% of Dodger games when he takes the mound.

Due to Kershaw’s inflated lines though, Strasburg has been more profitable for bettors between the two, including a higher return on investment percentage.

Where Strasburg has been the most effective for the Nationals is when they are facing a divisional opponent from the NL East.

Over the past five seasons, the Nationals are 41-15 (73.2%) when Strasburg takes the mound against a team from inside the NL East, beating their opponents by over a full run per game.

Strasburg is the eighth-most profitable pitcher in baseball in this spot since 2015, which is a feat in itself considering he has pitched 50 of those 56 starts as the betting favorite.

Strasburg is just 1-of-5 pitchers with a win percentage above 66.6% against divisional opponents (min. 50 starts) over the last five seasons:

On Thursday night, Strasburg will attempt to close the door on the Marlins in the third and final game of the Nationals three-game series with Miami.

In Strasburg’s career, the Nationals have been much more efficient in respect to winning games later in the series rather than in the first game or two.

  • Game 1 or 2 of a Series
    The Nationals are 78-60 (56.5%), winning by 0.4 runs per game and losing bettors $803 on a $100 per game basis.
  • Game 3 or Later of a Series
    The Nationals are 61-23 (72.6%), winning by 1.8 runs per game and profiting bettors $1,427 on a $100 per game basis.
Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg (37).

In those 84 starts in Game 3 of a series or later, Strasburg is an astonishing 15-2 (88.2%) when he starts on the road against a divisional opponent, with the Nationals winning by 2.6 runs per game.

Maybe the most impressive part of those 17 starts for Strasburg is the fact that his opponents are averaging a minuscule 2 runs per game, with 13-of-17 opponents scoring 2 runs or less.

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