Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/1: Adbert Alzolay vs. Trevor Williams Could Be A Pitchers’ Duel
Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Trevor Williams
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on July 1 with his model below and highlights Bree (1:10 p.m. ET) and Athletics-Angels (4:07 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
Monday has a short slate, with just five total night games – all of which are divisional matchups.
However, only one team (Tampa Bay) is a favorite of greater than -200, setting up a few reasonable betting opportunities. Both sides of the Mike Minor camp will also have a chance to either fade or continue to back the Rangers lefty as he carries an 8-4 record and a 2.40 ERA into his home start against the Angels.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-3 against full-game moneylines and 1-3 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 3-2, and I finished up 0.61 units for the day.
It was a mostly positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 10 cents against the Reds moneyline (+116 to +106), 6 cents against the Padres moneyline (-114 to -120), and 5 cents against the under in London (-115 to -120) but lost 4 cents on the A’s moneyline (+124 to +128).
MLB Betting Model for Monday, July 1
Today, the model recommends zero full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays as F5 plays.
The under 9.5 between Pittsburgh and the Cubs was also flagged. As we don’t yet have umpire assignments for that game, I’m going to wait to play it – but it’s something that I’m certainly interested in.
I highlighted Cubs rookie Adbert Alzolay on June 25, so I won’t go too much further into detail on the young righty. Instead, let’s discuss Pirates starter, Trevor Williams.
He gets ahead of hitters – generating a first-pitch strike 69.1% of the time, which is tied with Masahiro Tanaka for fifth in MLB.
Williams owns a 15.6% strikeout-minus-walk rate – a 4.5% improvement over 2018 – thanks to a minuscule 3.6% walk rate, and he has also increased his swinging strike rate from 7.9% in 2018 to 10.5% this season.
It’s easy to see the steady gains that Williams has made in his command over the course of his career:
His arsenal consists of a four-seam fastball (92.3 mph, 56%), sinker, changeup, and slider – and he succeeds primarily with his ability to “get the first punch” with the fastball.
Under the hood, things are a bit more interesting. Despite the improvement in rate stats Williams’ ERA (4.25) is higher than in 2018 and his FIP (3.86 vs. 3.81) and xFIP (4.54 vs. 4.54) marks have held steady since last season.
Williams’ xwOBA (.315) is also similar to 2018 (.310), placing him as a slightly above average starter, but I wouldn’t project him for an ERA below 4.25 moving forward.
That being said, I still project this game total closer to 8.5 than 9.5 – I just want to see the umpire assignment first.
As for the Rays, I think they make a nice parlay piece – and I paired their slightly reduced F5 moneyline with the Padres full game moneyline
Last time out, Logan Allen impressed with his second straight quality start, and this Giants offense is somehow worse against left-handed pitching (67 wRC+, 30th) than they are against righties (80 wRC+, 28th).
I’m hesitant to make the model recommended Brewers F5 play, as their projected staff behind Adrian Houser is a bit more unpredictable than the Rays situation.
Bets (So Far) for July 1
- 2-Way Parlay (+128): Rays (-260) F5 Moneyline with Padres (-157) Game Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 7/1
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.