MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/16: Can Oakland Athletics Salvage Series Win vs. Mariners?
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Detroit Tigers pitcher Spencer Turnbull (16)
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 16 with his model below and highlights Indians-Tigers (1:10 p.m. ET) and Mariners-Athletics (4:07 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
It’s Sunday, which means we’ve got a full slate of daytime baseball.
Make sure to limber up and stretch a bit — we don’t want you pulling a muscle out there!
It hurts watching this. 😳
— MLB (@MLB) June 16, 2019
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-2 against full-game moneylines and 1-2-1 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 1-2, and I finished down 0.50 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 10 cents against the Rays spread (+100 to -110) but lost 10 cents against the Oakland spread (-125 to -115).
I was never on the right side of the total that I played. Despite some initial sharp action on under 8.5 in Mets-Cardinals, the total eventually rose to 9.0.
MLB Betting Model for Sunday, June 16
Today, the model recommends seven full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Oakland Athletics, and San Francisco Giants as full-game plays. The model also likes the Giants, Marlins, Mets, Orioles, and Tigers as F5 plays.
Of those recommended options I aligned myself with sharp action on Detroit and Oakland and played both teams on the full-game moneyline.
Tanner Anderson will be making his second career major league start for the Athletics. The 26-year-old Harvard graduate was acquired in a trade from Pittsburgh during the offseason.
Despite pedestrian numbers at Triple-A in the offensive-friendly Pacific Coast League, that league environment doesn’t play to Anderson’s strengths. He uses his heavy sinker (93 mph) to generate groundballs and can also use his swing and miss slider in two-strike counts.
It was intriguing, and perhaps even telling to see him installed as such a heavy favorite.
That’s likely because Mike Leake’s metrics have fallen off a cliff for Seattle. The 31-year-old righty owns a career 4.19 FIP and 3.90 xFIP. Those figures stand at 5.33 and 4.74 in 2019.
His xwOBA (.350) tracks with where it did in 2018 (.347), more than 20 points above his 2016-2017 levels:
Leake is allowing an average exit velocity of 91 mph on his batted balls (bottom 2% in baseball) in 2019, with an expected slugging percentage of .501 (bottom 9%).
He looks like a pitcher to continue to fade.
For Cleveland, Trevor Bauer’s FIP and xFIP are also tracking much higher in 2019 than they have in prior seasons. He owns a career 3.87 FIP and 3.98 xFIP and seemingly broke out with a 2.21 ERA, 2.44 FIP, and 3.14 xFIP in 2018.
However, Bauer has regressed to a 4.36 FIP and 4.54 xFIP in 2019. His strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. His strikeout minus walk rate (15.2%) aligns with his career mark (14.9%) after posting a rate of 23% in 2018.
Bauer has allowed an average exit velocity of 89.1 mph on batted balls in 2019. The exit velocity was at 87.0 mph in 2018 and is 88.3 mph for his career.
He’s allowing a lot more hard contact this season than he did in 2018:
2018 looks like a clear outlier year in the graph, but Bauer has some of the best stuff in the game and can do a 180 from start to start.
Spencer Turnbull has been extremely effective for the Tigers (3.71 FIP, 4.47 xFIP), making this home game, to me, much closer to a coin flip than the odds would suggest.
Batted ball data suggests that Turnbull is clearly an above average pitcher. Based upon xwOBA, he’s clearly outperformed Trevor Bauer in 2019:
Bets (So Far) for June 16
- Detroit Tigers (+151) Game Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (-129) Game Moneyline
- Under 9.5 (-120) NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox
- Under 12.5 (-110), San Diego at Colorado
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/16
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.