MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/13: Can Oakland Continue to Dominate Left-Handed Pitching?
Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Piscotty, Jurickson Profar
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 13 with his model below, and highlights Astros-Tigers (7:10 p.m. ET) and Athletics-Mariners (10:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-3 against full-game moneylines, and 0-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My actual picks went 0-4, and I was down 2.39 units for the day.
I finished the week at 19-23-3, -3.16 Units. After an extremely positive March and April (+19.43 units), it’s been a rough stretch in May (-8.2 units), but my tracked plays for the season are still 128-123-11 (+11.23 units).
Baseball is an extremely high variance sport. It requires excruciating patience and meticulous bankroll management. There are very long winning streaks and very long losing streaks throughout a season.
Due to the May downturn, I have received questions from some people lately asking me if books are catching up to my projections.
The answer is no; books manage lines based upon both fair odds and liquidity on either side of the ticket count, not just the projected fair odds. I’m merely providing what I think that the fair odds on a game should be, to compare it to the market.
The Yankees-Rays series from this past weekend is a good example, as all three opening lines moved towards my projected fair odds:
- On Friday, Tampa Bay opened as a -140 favorite, I bet the Rays at -135 and -141, and they closed at -168. I projected fair odds at -161.
- On Saturday, Tampa Bay opened as a -155 favorite, I bet the Rays at -132, and they closed at -135. I projected fair odds at -132.
- On Sunday, Tampa Bay opened as a -150 favorite, I bet the Rays at -160, and they closed at -185. I projected fair odds at -174.
Sunday was another positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 25 cents on that Rays moneyline and 10 cents on the Nationals F5 moneyline, the results just didn’t go my way.
I’ll continue to hunt for the best of every number, and believe that I already have with my two picks for Monday.
On Deck for Monday May 13
The model recommends two full-game moneylines and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5) on Monday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox as the full-game plays. It also likes the Tigers as an F5 play.
Matt Boyd has been one of my favorite pitchers to back this season, and I’ll grab him at big plus-money in the first half at home against the Astros, who are currently without Jose Altuve.
Boyd is on a run of seven straight quality starts in the midst of a breakout season, with a 26% strikeout minus walk rate (11.26 K/9, 1.97 BB/9), a 2.28 FIP, and a 3.38 xFIP. He ranks sixth among qualified starters (150 plate appearances) in xwOBA (.254), just ahead of Gerrit Cole, and Monday’s starter for the Astros, Brad Peacock.
Boyd’s swinging strike rate is up 4.5% over his career (10%) as opponents are making contact on his pitches outside of the zone 16.7% less often than in 2018.
Boyd modified his arsenal last season, throwing his changeup less often and his slider more often. That reversal his continued into 2019, as Boyd now goes fastball-slider 89% of the time, reducing his changeup usage from more than 20% in 2017 to just 4% this season.
Matt Boyd, 92mph Fastball and 81mph Slider, Individual Pitches + Overlay. pic.twitter.com/BhAaG82DKY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 9, 2019
I will be going against a different left-handed starter today, as Yusei Kikuchi takes on the Oakland Athletics at home.
Oakland is always a team that I look to play against left-handed starting pitchers, as the A’s have been the most profitable team to play against southpaws since the beginning of the 2018 season:
They can line up with nine right-handed hitters against you, which is notable since Kikuchi has shown a platoon split early in his MLB career with a .227 wOBA against lefties but a .283 wOBA against righties.
Oakland would have been flagged by the model based upon its opening line (+115) and will be riding a confident Mike Fiers, who is coming off of his second career no-hitter.
Of note, Tampa Bay is another team that kills left-handed pitching. Since the start of 2018, a $100 bettor would be 35-23, +1,160 with Tampa Bay against left-handed starters; the only team nearly as profitable as Oakland against lefties over the same span.
Bets (So Far) for May 13
- Detroit Tigers (+150) F5 Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (+110) Game Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/13
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.