MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/13: Can Oakland Continue to Dominate Left-Handed Pitching?

May 13, 2019 02:28 PM EDT
Credit:

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Piscotty, Jurickson Profar

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the full slate of games on May 13 with his model below, and highlights Astros-Tigers (7:10 p.m. ET) and Athletics-Mariners (10:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-3 against full-game moneylines, and 0-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

My actual picks went 0-4, and I was down 2.39 units for the day.

I finished the week at 19-23-3, -3.16 Units. After an extremely positive March and April (+19.43 units), it’s been a rough stretch in May (-8.2 units), but my tracked plays for the season are still 128-123-11 (+11.23 units).

Baseball is an extremely high variance sport. It requires excruciating patience and meticulous bankroll management. There are very long winning streaks and very long losing streaks throughout a season.

Due to the May downturn, I have received questions from some people lately asking me if books are catching up to my projections.

The answer is no; books manage lines based upon both fair odds and liquidity on either side of the ticket count, not just the projected fair odds. I’m merely providing what I think that the fair odds on a game should be, to compare it to the market.

The Yankees-Rays series from this past weekend is a good example, as all three opening lines moved towards my projected fair odds:

  • On Friday, Tampa Bay opened as a -140 favorite, I bet the Rays at -135 and -141, and they closed at -168. I projected fair odds at -161.
  • On Saturday, Tampa Bay opened as a -155 favorite, I bet the Rays at -132, and they closed at -135. I projected fair odds at -132.
  • On Sunday, Tampa Bay opened as a -150 favorite, I bet the Rays at -160, and they closed at -185. I projected fair odds at -174.

Sunday was another positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 25 cents on that Rays moneyline and 10 cents on the Nationals F5 moneyline, the results just didn’t go my way.

I’ll continue to hunt for the best of every number, and believe that I already have with my two picks for Monday.

On Deck for Monday May 13

All odds as of Monday morning (view live odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Monday, May 13.

The model recommends two full-game moneylines and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5) on Monday. 

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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