MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/14: Ride the Oakland Offense Against Southpaws?
Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oakland Athletics designated hitter Khris Davis (2).
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 14 with his model below and highlights Marlins-Pirates (7:10 p.m. ET) and Padres-Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
It’s Friday, and there’s typically additional public action on Friday and Saturday nights. That might increase even more today.
Now that the NBA and NHL playoffs have ended, baseball has the spotlight for a few months.
It’s about to get a little more crowded around here, but we’ve got plenty of room to fit everyone:
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-2 against full-game moneylines and 1-1-1 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 4-4, and I finished up 0.23 units for the day.
I re-played the under in Tampa Bay, which thankfully covered despite some early fireworks and a mid-game power outage, and the Mets F5 spread cashed despite full-game bets being refunded.
It was a very positive in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 53 cents overall against moneylines and spreads, and the under (10.5) that I lost in Minnesota actually moved down to 10.0 before first pitch.
MLB Betting Model for Friday, June 14
Today, the model recommends two full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Kansas City Royals and Miami Marlins as full-game plays. The model also likes the Marlins and Royals, in addition to the Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants as F5 plays.
I’ll skip using the Royals at the Twins, even though Brad Keller has pitched well in his recent outings, and also avoid Drew Pomeranz and his 5.84 FIP against the Brewers.
Of the cellar-dwellers, I’ll take the Marlins at home as I rarely show Miami as a true home favorite on paper; but here we are. The Marlins have received an offensive boost in recent weeks from 28-year-old, 6-foot-6 slugger Garrett Cooper, who looks fully healthy after an injury-plagued 2018.
His average exit velocity (90.4 mph) ranks 83rd in baseball, alongside J.T. Realmuto and Robinson Cano. Cooper’s expected batting average is .304, and his expected slugging percentage is .513.
He finally brings a big-time power threat to the middle of this Marlins lineup:
MEET THAT BALL IN ST. LOUIE.
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) June 12, 2019
Cooper was acquired along with Caleb Smith in a November 2017 trade with the Yankees; a deal that now looks like a clear win for the Marlins. Kudos to Derek Jeter.
My Padres F5 moneyline play against the Rockies is a direct fade of Jeff Hoffman, who simply cannot find consistent success in the major leagues.
Hoffman has thrown 165 innings at the MLB level and pitched to a 6.22 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP with a 138:71 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His 2019 xwOBA (.368) and xwOBA on contact (.486) are career worsts, which is surprising because his strikeout to walk ratio (29:7 in 25 IP) is actually pretty good.
He simply gives up too much hard contact, and his exit velocity indicators are trending in the wrong direction after a positive start to the season:
That being said, I also bet the under 12.5 in Colorado. The under is 25-13 at Coors Field (+$1,133, 29.8% ROI) over the past three seasons when the total opens at 12.0 or higher. When a total at Coors Field closes between 12.5 and 13.0 over the same period, the under has gone 12-4.
Lastly, I’m going to continue to ride the A’s and Rays against southpaws today, by parlaying their full-game moneylines together at plus-odds and also taking each against their F5 spread.
There are some relevant trends that I have noted previously, but will continue to hammer home:
- Since the beginning of 2018, Oakland is 46-31 (+$1,418, 18.4% ROI) and Tampa Bay is 40-29 (+$926, 13.4% ROI) on the moneyline against lefties; making them the two most profitable teams for $100 bettors over that period.
- Tampa Bay is 22-14 ($+640, 17.8% ROI) as an F5 spread favorite against lefties over that same period. They are 9-5 ($+375, 26.8% ROI) in 2019.
- Oakland is 9-2-1 ($+668, 55.7% ROI) as an F5 spread favorite against lefties in 2019.
Oakland’s offense is 27% above average against lefties, and 7% below average against righties. The Rays are 13% above average against righties, and 2% above average against lefties.
I took note of some sharp action on the Phillies, otherwise, I would have taken the Braves F5 moneyline.
Bets (So Far) for June 14
- Miami Marlins (-110) Game Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (-0.5, -120) F5 Spread
- San Diego Padres (+105) F5 Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-0.5, -110) F5 Spread
- 2-way Parlay (+150), Oakland (-178) Game Moneyline and Tampa Bay (-163) Game Moneyline
- Over 7.5 (-110), Arizona at Washington
- Under 7.5 (-120), LA Angels at Tampa Bay
- Under 10 (-120), Texas at Cincinnati
- Under 12.5 (-115), San Diego at Colorado
- Under 9.5, Seattle at Oakland
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/14
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.