Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/28: Backing Lynn, Rangers, vs. an Exhausted Rays Bullpen

On Thursday, the Rays and Twins used 19 pitchers and combined for 501 pitches over 18 innings of baseball, with Tampa Bay eventually prevailing, 5-2. Both of these bullpens should be completely taxed until their next off day, making each team a prime fade target heading into the weekend.

The Mets also lost in dramatic fashion to the Phillies. They trailed 1-0 going into the ninth inning, took a 3-1 lead, and lost 6-3 on a walk-off home run from Jean Segura in the bottom of the ninth.

I'll let New York radio host Mike Francesa take you into the scene:

Recapping Yesterday's MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-3 against full-game moneylines and 1-1 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).

My plays went 4-4, and I finished down 0.20 units for the day.

I ended up playing the Brewers under a second time, and also played it again live. As anticipated, Josh Hader threw two shutout innings.

It was a slightly positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained a few pennies against the Atlanta (+100 to -101) and Oakland (+150 to +148) moneylines, but the under 10.5 in Milwaukee also moved my direction (from -110 and -115 to -135), and the Cubs under dropped from 11 to 10.5.

I lost five cents against Houston's under (-115 to -110).

MLB Betting Model for Friday, June 28

All odds as of Friday morning (view live MLB odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Friday.

Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and three moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).

As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Cincinnati Reds, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, Oakland Athletics, and Texas Rangers as full-game plays. The model also likes the Reds and Tigers, in addition to the Los Angeles Dodgers as F5 plays. 

Daniel Norris has been throwing well of late for the Tigers (28 K, 5 BB in June in 29 IP) and Detroit is in a nice contrarian spot today, especially as an AL  team at home in an interleague game.

However, the Nationals show a positive split against left-handed pitching – ranking 6th in wRC+ (118) vs. southpaws but 23rd against righties (88 wRC+).

As a team they have been on a tear in June, going 16-7 with a +42 run differential while scoring 5.9 runs per game

I'll go back to the Dodgers F5 spread with Hyun-Jin Ryu facing Antonio Senzatela.

I went against the Rockies on June 23 and it backfired as Senzatela threw his best start of the season, but I remained undeterred as a result of his 5.28 FIP and 5.01 xFIP.

Ryu is 50-35 (58.8%, +$1,209, 14.2% ROI) as an F5 spread favorite in his career, and 11-3 in 2019.

His 1.27 ERA is certainly due to regress, but a 2.50 FIP and 2.92 xFIP each rank second among all pitchers, showing how dominant Ryu has been.

He has only walked six batters in 99 innings, using a four-seam fastball, two-seamer, and cutter to get ahead:

Before he typically sits you down or gets you to tap out weakly on the ground with his dominant changeup:

I'll continue to back Sonny Gray in his resurgent 2019 campaign for the Reds. His 16.9% strikeout minus walk rate is at its best mark since his rookie season (2013), and his 55% ground-ball rate is his highest since 2014.

Mike Fiers doesn't own a great triple slash against the Angels .290/.353/.535, but you could say the same for Felix Pena against Oakland (.367/.415/.633).

Pena should pitch the bulk of the game for Los Angeles after Noe Ramirez opens.

Lastly, I'm playing the Texas Rangers against the Tampa Bay Rays. I mentioned in the introduction that the Rays are a prime fade target, and that's especially true today.

They're already down their two best relief pitchers (Jose Alvarado and Diego Castillo) and emptied their bullpen (aside from Hunter Wood, who had thrown for two consecutive days) on Thursday.

They need pure length from Yonny Chirinos on Friday, and he has to go up against Joey Gallo and the righty-mashing Rangers.

Lance Lynn is also having the best season of his career for Texas at age-32, as he's tied for second with Hyun-Jin Ryu at 3.3 pitching WAR after cutting his walk rate from 11% in 2018 to 5.9% in 2019.

Lynn is generating first-pitch strikes (60.3%, highest since 2013), and living in the zone (44.1%, highest since 2011), while throwing more four-seamers and cutters and fewer two-seam fastballs:

Lynn has also shown improved command and potentially improved tunneling over all three offerings.

Look at how smooth 2019 looks:

Lynn's 2018 and 2017 seasons are more distinctive, with the two-seamers and cutters located away from lefties and in towards righties, and the four-seam fastballs located in towards lefties and away from righties.

The command and aggressiveness in 2019 is a noticeable difference, giving the Rangers a second All-Star pitcher to go with Mike Minor.

Bets (So Far) for June 28

• Cincinnati Reds (+103) Game Moneyline
• Los Angeles Dodgers (-0.5, -140) F5 Spread
• Oakland Athletics (+128) Game Moneyline
• Texas Rangers (+137) Game Moneyline

Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Friday, June 28.

Zerillo's Full MLB Model, 6/28

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.