Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/23: Kenta Maeda, Dodgers Are Undervalued vs. Rockies
Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Kenta Maeda
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 23 with his model below and highlights Braves-Nationals (1:35 p.m. ET) and Dodgers-Rockies (4:10 p.m. ET) as a potential edge.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
On Sunday, Wilkin Castillo recorded his first major league hit in a decade, becoming the first player since Minnie Minoso (1964-1976) to go 10+ years between MLB hits:
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) June 22, 2019
In between those base knocks, Castillo played in the minors, in Mexico (majors and minors), and in the independent Atlantic League for the Long Island Ducks.
Never give up on your dreams.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-6 against full-game moneylines and 0-5 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 1-6, and I finished down 2.76 units for the day.
It was a slightly negative day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I lost nine cents overall against moneylines, gaining value against three picks and losing value against three picks.
MLB Betting Model for Sunday, June 23
Today, the model recommends six full-game moneylines and seven moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Orioles, Reds, Royals and Tigers as full-game plays. The model also likes the Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Royals, Orioles and Tigers, in addition to the Dodgers and Giants as F5 plays.
Of those plays, I really like the Atlanta Braves today, and I also played the Dodgers against the spread in the first five innings.
Kenta Maeda is the perfect five-and-dive pitcher, able to turn over a lineup a couple of times at optimal efficiency.
His strikeout minus walk rate (16.5%) is actually at a career low in 2019 (average 18.7%), but his strikeout rate is due to increase thanks to a 14% whiff rate.
Maeda increased that swinging strike rate from 11.6% in 2016 to 12.5% in 2017 to 14.4% last season, gradually decreasing his cutter and sinker usage while increasing his rate of changeups and sliders.
Kenta Maeda, 84mph 0-2 Slider ("waste" pitch) and 1-2 85mph Changeup (swinging K), Overlay. pic.twitter.com/aeELapMc3u
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 25, 2018
Maeda’s opponent on Sunday, the Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela, owns a 40:33 strikeout to walk ratio in 70.2 innings pitched this season.
Among pitchers who have thrown that many innings, Senzatela FIP (5.55) is the second worst in baseball. His xFIP (5.09) matches his ERA and is sixth-worst.
I was going to be backing the Braves today whether Patrick Corbin started for the Nationals, or the team summoned a pitcher from Triple-A. The latter occurred, as Austin Voth will make his first start of the season for Washington.
The 26-year-old has polished command (4.5 K/BB in Triple-A) and has demonstrated the ability to strikeout a batter per inning in the high-minors, but he nibbled at the edges of the MLB zone during his initial call-up in 2018.
This play is more about the Nationals bullpen than anything else. They surrendered nine runs in three innings on Saturday, increasing their bullpen ERA to a league-worst 6.32 on the season.
Braves starter Mike Soroka doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts (7.3 K/9), but his FIP (3.08), xFIP (3.64), and xwOBA (.289) point to him having an above-average arm with a high floor.
He has allowed an average exit velocity of 85.4 mph this season, in the top 7% among all pitchers, and generates a ton of groundballs (57%).
I expect the Braves offense (7% above league average) to wear down a patchwork Nationals pitching staff today.
Bets (So Far) for June 23
- Atlanta Braves (-140) Game Moneyline
- LA Dodgers (-0.5, -130) F5 Spread
- Over 9, Detroit at Cleveland
- Under 9, San Diego at Pittsburgh
- Under 9.5, Houston at NY Yankees
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/23
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.