MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/5: Back Martin Perez, Twins as Public Dogs in Cleveland?
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Martin Perez
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 5 with his model below and highlights Twins-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET) and Rockies-Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
On Tuesday, Angel Hernandez was doing Angel Hernandez things, providing further evidence and support for a computerized or robot strike zone:
"We bet real money on this game!!!" – Bettors everywherepic.twitter.com/xiCNjQlIqi
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) June 5, 2019
Often times, umpires miss a strike call or simply refuse to call a pitch a strike when it badly misses the catcher’s target.
However, there is never an excuse for missing a call that is middle-middle in the zone. This pitch from Tanaka was right down the pipe, and might have nicked the lower third quadrant, but this is should be a strike 100% of the time.
This is not a breaking ball that went “through” the zone before being caught outside of it, or a fastball on the outer edge where the umpire is set up inside.
Borderline pitches will always remain borderline. That’s why implementing a robo strike zone is not as easy as one would think, but there should be a way to eliminate, or perhaps overturn missed calls that are this egregious.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-1 against full-game moneylines and 2-2 against moneylines for the first five (F5) innings.
My tracked plays went 4-5 and I finished down 1.05 units for the day. It was a very positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 20 cents on the Mets F5 spread (-125 to -145), 12 cents on the Tampa Bay spread (-155 to -167), 8 cents on the Dodgers spread (-130 to -138), 5 cents on the Twins moneyline (+122 to +117) and 3 cents on the Red Sox spread (-122 to -125).
I was also on the right side of three of the four unders that I played, with three moving down by half of a run, and only one (Dodgers-Diamondbacks) moving the other way on me by half of a run.
On Deck for Wednesday, June 5
The model recommends six full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Wednesday.
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins, Pittsburgh Pirates and Toronto Blue Jays as full-game plays. It also likes the Blue Jays, Marlins, Tigers and Twins, in addition to the San Francisco Giants as F5 plays.
Unfortunately I’m not interested in most of these plays, but there are a few that I will make.
I’ll take the Twins in both halves of their game and also play the Giants and Tigers on the F5 moneyline.
I would also consider playing the Blue Jays at home, but have no interest whatsoever in the Marlins, Pirates or Royals on Wednesday. Additionally, I played the Cubs last night at a 2.5% edge against the Rockies, and went back to the well with Mike Minor on the F5 spread for Texas.
Minor is 10-5 against the spread as an F5 favorite over the past two seasons, and 5-2 in 2019. Since April he’s pitched at least five innings in every start and given up more than three runs just one time (four runs to the lefty-slugging A’s on April 22) with a 3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio (77:22) in 71 innings pitched.
Texas ranks second both in runs scored in the first inning of games (0.74) and in runs scored per game (5.76), typically giving Minor the run support he needs in order to cover the F5 spread if he does his job.
Yu Darvish might finally be rounding into form for the Cubs. After struggling with his control through mid-May (33 BB, 44 K in eight starts), he tossed five innings with 11 strikeouts and no walks against the Reds on May 15 and has followed that effort up with three straight quality starts (8 BB, 18 K in 19 IP).
Per my colleague Stuckey, it’s time to fade the Rockies on the road after a red hot homestand, and the Cubs received a slight bullpen upgrade with Pedro Strop returning from the injured list on Tuesday.
The Tigers are an F5 moneyline play due to Spencer Turnbull’s consistency. The second-year righty out of Alabama has pitched to a 3.80 FIP over 12 starts, displaying positive pitch value on each of his fastball, slider and changeup.
Turnbull’s curveball actually shows a negative pitch value, but it generates a big whiff rate and is an eye-catching offering:
Spencer Turnbull has a 42.9(!) Whiff% on his curve this season pic.twitter.com/1QDsj6MIkG
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) May 6, 2019
There will be a battle of big curveballs in Detroit with Turnbull facing off against Charlie Morton, who leads MLB in curveball pitch value (+11.2).
Charlie Morton, Filthy 76mph Curveball (release). 😷 pic.twitter.com/60WCeuSPoi
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 8, 2019
The Giants will also be throwing a pitcher with a big curveball.
Tyler Beede is a former first-round pick and a prospect for the Giants who I’ve been eyeing for some time. He’s only appeared in six major league games and has struggled with his command, allowing 19 runs in 20 innings pitched on 28 hits and 19 walks.
Beede has possessed relatively high walk rates in the minor leagues (over 3 batters per nine innings) but has pitched well at Triple-A in 2019, striking out 49 batters in 34.2 innings. He’s a three-pitch guy (four-seam fastball, curveball, changeup), whose fastball sits around 95 mph:
Tyler Beede, Filthy Breaking Stuff (plus a FB that T98mph). 🤢 pic.twitter.com/qfrLkExLIJ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 2, 2019
He’s coming off of a quality start against the Marlins (6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K) and will look to keep it rolling against Jason Vargas and the Mets.
Lastly, I’m playing the Twins again as public dogs after losing in Cleveland yesterday as a public dog. Though more than 80% of the moneyline tickets and nearly 90% of the moneyline cash is on the Twins (see live public betting data here), some professional steam did come in on them (it was all behind Cleveland on Tuesday).
I’ve previously covered Martin Perez and his newfound cutter, which he throws over one-third of the time:
martin perez's cutter is a difference-maker for him right now. pic.twitter.com/Oimy9oTtpD
— Parker Hageman (@ParkerHageman) May 2, 2019
Perez’s ERA and FIP match (3.71) and though his xFIP says that his ERA should be higher, xFIP tends to underrate pitchers who throw the cutter.
Their strikeout rates are reduced, but they generate a lot of weak contact instead. Perez’s 2019 xwOBA is .289 compared to .349 for his career. His xwOBA on contact is .323 vs. .374 for his career.
It’s a similar case to Wade Miley, who continues to overachieve compared to his xFIP since introducing his cutter a couple of seasons ago. Miley’s xwOBA (.307 in 2018, .285 in 2019) has dropped significantly (.330 career), as has his xwOBA on contact (around .320 over 2018-19 vs. .367 career).
Don’t expect those cutter-heavy pitchers to regress all the way to their xFIP markers. Perez also pitches in front of what is currently the best defensive team in baseball.
Bets (So Far) for June 5
- Chicago Cubs (-110) Game Moneyline
- Detroit Tigers (+175) F5 Moneyline
- Minnesota Twins (+113) F5 Moneyline
- Minnesota Twins (+124) Game Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+125) F5 Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (-0.5, -115) F5 Spread
- Under 9.5, LA Dodgers at Arizona
- Under 9.5, Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/5
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.