Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/5: Will Zack Greinke Continue to Shine in First 5?
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zack Greinke
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Friday's slate of games, including whether Zack Greinke can continue his F5 dominance.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Baseball has already seen four first-round picks from the 2017 amateur draft make appearances at the MLB level: Adam Haseley (Phillies), Keston Hiura (Brewers), Brendan McKay (Rays), and Kyle Wright (Braves). McKay will take an MLB mound on Friday for the second time in his career, and the versatile prospect faces his biggest test yet against a Yankees team that is pacing MLB with 491 runs scored. Is he up to the task?
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-4 against full-game moneylines.
My plays went 1-2, and I finished down 0.58 units for the day.
It was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 12 cents against the Rays moneyline (+103 to -109) and saw the under in Oakland move down from 10.5 to 9.5
MLB Betting Model for Friday, July 5
Today, the model recommends seven full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first five-innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Mariners, Marlins, Phillies, Rays, Royals, and Tigers as full-game plays. It also likes the Angels, Marlins and Mariners, in addition to the Diamondbacks and Twins, as F5 plays.
The Rays will throw Brendan McKay in his second career major league start after winning the 2017 Golden Spikes Award and getting drafted fourth overall out of Louisville.
He impressed in his debut against the Rangers on June 29, allowing one hit and one walk while striking out three batters over six innings.
McKay has plus command over his arsenal, locating his above-average fastball and cutter to both sides of the plate before dropping in his big hook. He also has a developing change-up.
Here’s the fastball with excellent location:
Now the cutter:
And finally the curveball:
The Rays have continued to develop and deploy McKay as a two-way player – but he is 0-4 in MLB at-bats and owned a .205/.313/.331 triple-slash line over 444 at-bats in the minor leagues.
As a pitcher, McKay is likely already an above-average major leaguer with superstar potential.
He was dominating in the high minors in 2019, with a 1.22 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 88 strikeouts against 15 walks in 66.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.
McKay faces a big test today vs. the Yankees, but I like him to put on a show.
Aside from the Rays and McKay at home, the F5 moneylines for the Diamondbacks and Twins caught my eye.
Not only is Zack Greinke 10-4-4 (71.4%) on the F5 moneyline in 2019, it aligns with a career trend as he’s one of the most profitable F5 pitchers in our database.
Greinke has won on the F5 moneyline 62% of the time (172-105-51) in his career, netting a $100 bettor $1,557 over the course of those starts.
The Twins, meanwhile, have been one of the more profitable F5 teams to back in 2019, with a 45-30-11 record (60%, +$765, 8.9% ROI), despite losing the first half in five out of their past six games.
Martin Perez also continues to pitch to a career year, with a 3.79 FIP and 4.39 xFIP. I’ve harped before on Perez and his cutter usage, as he’s leaning on the pitch 33% of the time in 2019 after never throwing it previously:
That small dot that you see up there by the word “sinker” is Perez’s 2019 cutter usage; like it came out of nowhere.
I’m using both the Diamondbacks and the Twins in an F5 moneyline parlay on Friday.
Bets (So Far) for July 5
- Tampa Bay Rays (+106) Game Moneyline
- 2-Way Parlay (+162): Diamondbacks (-164) F5 Moneyline with Twins (-160) F5 Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 7/5
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.