Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/24: Ride with Miguel Sano, Twins?
Brad Rempel, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Wednesday's slate of games, including how to bet Yankees-Twins.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Though I didn’t love Tuesday’s card overall, the model ended up going 6-2-3 against sides as of writing, and it has 16 more potential plays on tap for Wednesday.
The Minnesota Twins showed line value in both halves of their game against the Yankees, and I certainly looked to play them in the first half again today, despite their crushing loss on Tuesday night.
If you went to bed early on Tuesday, you probably missed the best game of the 2019 MLB season, which ended on a game-saving catch:
The teams traded various leads late into the evening, with each grabbing a clear hold of the game before the outer mounted a comeback:
- Top 8th, 9-5 MIN (98% win probability)
- Bottom 8th, 10-9 NYY (78% win probability)
- Top 9th, 11-10 MIN (89% win probability)
- Bottom 9th, 12-11 NYY (86% win probability)
- Bottom 9th, 12-12 (MIN 89% win probability)
- Bottom 10th, 14-12 NYY (92% win probability)
What’s freaky? Hicks has made this same catch in almost the same spot when he used to play for the Twins:
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 4-2 against full-game moneylines and 2-0-3 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 3-2-1, and I finished up 0.50 units for the day.
It was a mostly positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained seven cents against the Rays moneyline (+152 to +145), and six cents against the Tigers moneyline (+133 to +127), but while the Royals-Braves over moved up from 9.5 to 10, so too did my Angels-Dodgers under.
MLB Betting Model for Wednesday, July 24
(Note: Jon Lester has been scratched by the Chicago Cubs for his start Wednesday against the Giants.)
Today, the model recommends nine full-game moneylines and seven moneylines for the first five-innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Blue Jays, Giants, Marlins, Padres, Rays, Rockies (Game 1), Royals, Tigers, and Twins as full-game plays. The model also likes those same teams, except for the Padres and Rockies, as F5 plays.
On July 19, I discussed Tyler Beede and his developing slider, before he went out and dominated the Mets for eight shutout innings.
Beede had a 43:28 strikeout to walk ratio through his first eight starts in 2019, but now has three straight quality starts, and a 16:1 ratio over 21.2 innings pitched.
Beede rarely threw his slider prior to July, but over his run of three straight quality starts it has become his main secondary pitch, using it 13% on July 7, 22.3% on July 14, and 17% on July 19.
I think we’re seeing the emergence of a young pitcher, who could be a key piece for the Giants (52-50) down the stretch, as they sit just two games out of a wildcard spot – and I played Beede and the Giants both on the F5 and full-game moneyline.
As I mentioned earlier I’m also going to back the Twins today against the Yankees, but I’ll be doing so in the first half only.
I mentioned the other day that the Twins crush lefties (126 wRC+, 2nd in MLB), and they’re getting even scarier now that Miguel Sano has found himself.
Sano is in the top 1% for hard-hit rate (55.1%) and ranks in the top 3% amongst all hitters in barrel % (16.8%), average exit velocity (92.8 mph), and xwOBA on contact (.505).
He hit this moonshot in Tuesday’s game:
Sano also ranks in the bottom 1% of hitters in expected batting average (.210) and strikeout rate (37.4%), but if you look at his rolling plate discipline metrics he’s swinging less frequently outside of the strike zone, whiffing less often, and making contact in the zone more often of late:
In a year where defensive wizard Byron Buxton has also had a growth season offensively, the Twins young core is finally gelling into a World Series contender – albeit a couple of years later than this organization planned.
However, the Twins are probably still a starting pitcher and a couple of relievers shy from being able to take down the Astros or Yankees in a seven-game series – but they can rake with anyone, including the Yankees.
Bets (So Far) for July 24
- Minnesota Twins (+107) F5 Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (+142) Game Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+142) F5 Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+130) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-109) Game Moneyline
- Toronto Blue Jays (+122) Game Moneyline
- Under 8.5 (-110), Oakland at Houston
- Under 8.5 (-110), San Diego at NY Mets
- Under 9.5 (-110), LA Angels at LA Dodgers
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 7/24
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.