Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/19: Can Beede, Giants Slide Past deGrom?
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Francisco Giants pitcher Tyler Beede
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Friday's slate of games, including how to bet Padres-Cubs (2:20 p.m. ET) and Mets-Giants (10:15 pm. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Padres and Cubs have a somewhat random 2:20 p.m. ET game on Friday, amidst an otherwise full night slate of games. The afternoon contest features an extremely high total (12.5) due to the winds blowing out at Wrigley Field.
Despite the presence of an under-favoring umpire, Dan Bellino (56.7% under, +24.96 units) and my projection which calls for a weather-neutral total three runs below the listed total, I won’t be playing the under against the Wrigley wind — but I do see value on one of the sides in this matchup.
First, I want to check in on Brewers center fielder Lorenzo Cain, who saved his team at least two runs on Thursday with not one:
But two incredible catches:
Cain recorded 20 defensive runs saved in 2018, leading all center fielders (thanks to a big season with his throwing arm), and somehow doesn’t have a Gold Glove to his name yet.
I imagine that fact will be rectified by the end of the 2019 season.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-2 against full-game moneylines and 0-1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 2-4, and I finished down 1.23 units for the day.
It was a mostly positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 16 cents overall against the moneylines and spreads that I played, only losing eight cents against the Arizona moneyline (-108 to +100).
The two totals that I played stayed on the same number that I bet.
MLB Betting Model for Friday, July 19
Today, the model recommends five full-game moneyline and two moneylines for the first five-innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Diamondbacks, Giants, Orioles, Padres and Rockies as full-game plays. The model also likes the Orioles and Padres as F5 plays.
Padres lefty Eric Lauer has a bit of an uneven profile as his FIP (3.84) and xFIP (4.67) are worlds apart. Statcast shows that he has permitted slightly weaker contact than the average pitcher, with an xwOBA of .315.
League average is .322, and for comparison’s sake Cubs starter Jon Lester has an xwOBA of .333 this season after recording a .340 xwOBA in 2018.
Lauer is a former first-round pick out of Kent State after he led the NCAA with a 0.69 ERA (the lowest for an NCAA starter since 1979) during his junior season.
He exhibits good command of his arsenal, which includes a four-seam fastball (92-93 mph), a cut-fastball (88 mph), a changeup (85-87 mph) which is his best pitch, a slider (81-83 mph) and a slow curveball (77 mph).
Notably, Lauer has increased his slider usage of late, throwing the pitch 29% of the time in his last outing against the Dodgers:
It was long considered to be his best pitch by scouts, and he can vary the speed on the offering in order to further complement his cutter.
I’ll be watching Lauer closely to see whether he has a newfound confidence in using the slider.
Another pitcher who I backed today, and who has also recently increased his slider usage, is Tyler Beede of the Giants.
Over his past three starts, Beede has increased his rate of sliders from 3.6% to 13%, to 22.3% in each outing.
He turned in quality starts in his previous two outings against the Brewers and Padres, striking out 11 batters without allowing any walks — which is notable because Beede has walked 4.91 batters per nine innings on the year, with a 50:28 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Twice drafted in the first round, Beede has struggled with his command and his inability to find a consistent breaking ball throughout his minor league career.
He has a big fastball (average 94.5 mph) and a reliable fading changeup but has always needed a third offering to get big league hitters out.
In the slider, Beede might have finally found that third pitch:
Bets (So Far) for July 19
- Atlanta Braves (+111) Game Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (+140) Game Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+173) Game Moneyline
- Over 9.5, Toronto at Detroit
- Under 10.5, Oakland at Minnesota
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 7/19
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.