MLB Pitcher Props for Friday: Buy or Fade Mike Minor & José Quintana Strikeout Totals? (May 21)
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: José Quintana.
- The MLB player prop market is in full force on Friday night with a loaded slate of games.
- Two left-handers stand out to Kevin Davis using the Action Labs Player Prop tool.
- Davis breaks down where he sees value on Mike Minor and José Quintana entering the weekend.
With a full slate of games, there are many props to choose from. However, most of the pitcher props have been efficiently set for today’s slate. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like today, both unders.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades, as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop-bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 28-29, -4.87 Units, -8.5% ROI (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Mike Minor (KC) 6.5 Strikeouts (-109/-117)
|Tigers vs. Royals||Royals -162|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
The Detroit Tigers' lineup averages 9.91 strikeouts, which is the highest of any team in the league. Additionally, their lineup averages only 3.58 runs per game, which is the lowest in the American League and the third lowest in MLB.
With a strikeout-prone lineup that cannot score runs, opposing pitches tend to have an easy time getting through innings and racking up the strikeouts. The question for Friday’s game is if Mike Minor can go over his strikeout total of 6.5 strikeouts.
In eight starts this season, Minor has only had seven or more strikeouts just three times. In his lone start against the Tigers this season, Minor had nine strikeouts. However, past performance is not always predictive of future performance.
Minor is not having the best season so far with a 5.02 ERA and 4.55 xFIP. Most importantly, Minor is averaging about 5 1/3 innings per start with a strikeout rate of 9.21 strikeouts per nine innings. In a typical 5 1/3 inning start, Minor will get 5.45 strikeouts. For Minor to have one and a half more strikeouts than usual to go over his total, he must take advantage of his matchup against this Tigers lineup.
Even though Minor is pitching against the Tigers, he is unlikely to go over his strikeout total. The lefty would have to pitch for more innings than usual and even against the Tigers, I believe that the Royals will use him conservatively.
Pick: Mike Minor Under 6.5 Strikeouts -117 (play up to -130)
- Action Labs Score: 10
- Kevin Davis Score: 6
José Quintana (LAA) 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-107)
|Athletics at Angels||Angels -115|
|Time||9:38 p.m. ET|
José Quintana has been an interesting pitcher this season.
Known for his reliability throughout the years, Quintana has a 0-3 record with a 8.53 ERA in seven starts this season. However, his 3.45 xFIP suggests he has been incredibly unlucky this season.
Unsurprisingly given his struggles this season, Quintana is averaging only about 3 2/3 innings per start. On a decent day, though, he should pitch into the sixth inning. Even though Quintana has not been pitching as much per start, he currently has a career-high strikeout rate of 14.57 strikeouts per nine innings.
That strikeout rate is likely to decrease so even if he pitches five or six innings on Friday night, there's definitely a chance for some regression in that category. For his career, Quintana has a strikeout rate of only eight strikeouts per nine innings.
For Quintana to have six or more strikeouts on Friday night, he typically would have to pitch at least six innings. I believe that is unlikely and that is why I like his under.
Pick: Jose Quintana Under 5.5 Strikeouts -107 (play up to -140)
- Action Labs Score: 9
- Kevin Davis Score: 7