The surging Seattle Mariners (22-14) host the Toronto Blue Jays (17-20) on Friday, May 9, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SN1 and ROOT Northwest.
Friday's matchup between the Blue Jays and Mariners should have an excellent atmosphere, as plenty of Blue Jays faithful always make the trip to the Pacific Northwest. The Jays-Mariners opener will feature an excellent pitching matchup as Kevin Gausman (3.83 ERA, 40.0 IP) takes on Luis Castillo (3.29 ERA, 38 1/3 IP).
Find my Blue Jays vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Predictions
- Blue Jays vs Mariners pick: Blue Jays Moneyline +125 (bet365, Play to +115)
My Blue Jays vs Mariners best bet is on the Blue Jays moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Odds, Lines
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7 -120o / +100u | +120 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7 -120o / +100u | -145 |
Blue Jays vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| Kevin Gausman (TOR) | Stat | Luis Castillo (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 3-2 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.83 / 3.70 | ERA /xERA | 3.29 / 4.07 |
| 3.46 / 3.99 | FIP / xFIP | 3.89 / 4.60 |
| 0.93 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 16.4 | K-BB% | 8.5 |
| 32 | GB% | 47.5 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 105 | Location+ | 104 |
Nick Martin’s Blue Jays vs Mariners Preview, Prediction
Blue Jays Betting Preview: Converting on RISP a Real Problem
The Blue Jays were able to snap their four-game losing skid in Thursday's series finale versus the Angels, as their offense finally broke through with some hits with runners in scoring position.
Toronto's inability to hit with men on has plagued it all season long and has ruined an offense that's otherwise looked quite solid.
The Blue Jays had the bases loaded with no outs in the first inning of Thursday's matchup but failed to scratch across a single run thanks to three consecutive strikeouts. It looked like it would be another disappointing game for Jays fans until the team hung a crooked number in the sixth inning.
No team in baseball has left more runners in scoring position this season than the Blue Jays (4.19 runners per game).
The Blue Jays hold a wRC+ rating of 94 but have the 11th-best BB/K ratio and rank 16th in hard-hit rate. They rank 14th in on-base percentage, but that hasn't paid dividends due to their inability to hit with men on.
Having Daulton Varsho back in the lineup has proven to be quite noteworthy. While he's typically effective based on his incredible play in center field, he's also been highly productive at the plate over a small-game sample, slugging .727 with an OPS of 1.073.
Gausman looks to be well on his way to a sixth consecutive season with a sub-four ERA, as he's already pitched 40 innings and holds an ERA of 3.83. His underlying results are quite strong, as he holds an xERA of 3.70 and a 3.46 FIP.
His strikeout rate is up to 24.3% compared to last year's mark of 21.4%, and his Pitching+ rating is up to 106.
Mariners Betting Preview: Offense Has Been Big Surprise
Based only on ERA, Castillo is on pace to have his best season since 2022, the season in which he was first traded to the Mariners. His underlying profile is actually considerably worse than usual, though, and it seems likely that he may not be as successful the rest of the way.
Castillo holds an xERA of 4.07 and a FIP of 3.89. His K-BB% of 8.5 is a significant dropoff compared to last season, and he's been hard-hit 44.9% of the time.
Pitch metrics suggest his stuff has been significantly worse than last season, and it's no surprise that he's generating fewer strikeouts and giving up more hard contact. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 94 and a Pitching+ rating of 101.
The Mariners' strong offensive play has been one of the bigger surprises in the MLB this season. It's been the polar opposite of the Blue Jays' because it's an overachieving unit that's hit for power quite effectively.
Meanwhile, the Jays' lineup hasn't lived up to expectations based mainly on an inability to slug with men on.
The Mariners hold the second-best wRC+ rating (128) in baseball. Despite playing in the most pitcher friendly ballpark in the league, they hold the fourth-highest home run-to-fly-ball ratio.
Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
At a price of +125, this is a good spot to buy low on the Blue Jays' offense and fade Castillo, who looks like he's due for significant negative regression.
Castillo's stuff is grading out much worse right now compared to years past, and he's given up a concerning amount of hard contact while generating very few strikeouts.
Gausman looks to be a rock-solid starting option once again this season and should prove to be the superior of these two starters the rest of the way.
Though this current Jays roster has underperformed in several consecutive seasons, it seems likely that they'll be a more productive team moving forward.
Thursday's breakout night offensively could provide a spark.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline +125 (bet365, Play to +120)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Blue Jays to win the game at +125 is my favorite bet from this game.
Run Line (Spread)
A smaller bet on the Jays to cover the reverse run line at +200 appears to be worth a play. Target the idea that Castillo could be due for a blowup performance versus a team that doesn't strikeout much and generates plenty of hard contact versus righties.
Over/Under
A total of 7.5 looks fair in this matchup considering the venue.
