MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Buying Ian Anderson & Fading Scott Kazmir (September 22)
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Scott Kazmir
- Tuesday's player prop buffet features a young ace and an aging hurler.
- Ian Anderson takes the mound for the Braves, while Scott Kazmir is on the bump for the Giants.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of Tuesday's MLB prop slate.
We’ve got 14 games on the MLB slate today, but the Action Labs Player Props tool has shown value on two West Coast games.
We’ll be targeting a bright young Atlanta pitcher on the mound in Arizona tonight, as well as fading a very old San Francisco pitcher on the mound in San Diego.
The Action Labs Player Props tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and luckily, both our bets tonight are top-rated plays.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Ian Anderson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120)
|Braves vs. Diamondbacks||Braves (-180)|
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
I already love Ian Anderson, but I absolutely adore this bet at plus-money.
While he’s dealt with some injury issues this season, he’s hit over 4.5 strikeouts in 14 of 22 starts (64% hit rate). He didn’t make a MLB start between July 11 and August 29, but he recorded 12.27 K/9 in four Triple-A starts during the stretch.
Anderson recorded zero strikeouts in his first two starts back in the majors. But in his most recent two starts, he notched nine punch outs vs. Miami and seven at San Francisco.
Anderson is a great young arm who’s going to blow through this putrid Diamondbacks lineup. Over the past 30 days, the Diamondbacks pair the ninth-highest strikeout rate (24.2%) with the lowest wRC+. I’m expecting Anderson to post a 25% or more strikeout rate in this game, but he should also provide a lengthy start as well — either would give him a good chance to cash this number.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool has Anderson projected at 5.8 Ks tonight, while FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections has him at 5.08. It’s highway robbery that DraftKings is offering the over 4.5 number at plus-money, it should be closer to -150.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Scott Kazmir Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115)
|Giants vs. Padres||Giants (-110)|
|Time||10:15 p.m. ET|
It’s pretty cool to see Scott Kazmir back in the Show, especially after he hadn’t pitched an inning of major-league ball since 2016.
It’s been a remarkable comeback effort, that included an Olympics start and 12 minor-league starts. However, I’m not going to get caught up in the optics of it, and instead look closer at the numbers.
Kazmir posted just an 8.20 K/9 over those Triple-A starts, and his three MLB appearances were disastrous. He managed just seven total innings between the three, allowing five runs on eight hits in the process.
His last MLB start was back on June 6, meaning he hasn’t seen a MLB lineup in more than three months. Today, he gets the San Diego Padres, who have been disciplined despite not hitting well — the Padres have posted the league’s sixth-lowest strikeout rate vs. LHPs over the past month (19%).
I can’t see Kazmir bumping up his strikeout rate or giving his team much length today. The projections agree, as the Action Labs Player Props tool has him projected at just 2.2 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections has him at 3.2.
But while DraftKings is offering the under 3.5 number at -140, you can still play that number at -115 on PointsBet. That’s solid value, and I’d play this number at anything better than -120.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10