MLB Playoff Odds 10/9/22, Expert Picks, Projections for Mets vs. Padres
Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove.
- Sean Zerillo breaks down the Padres-Mets matchup and shares his projections for the other MLB playoff series.
- He has three potential bets for this matchup and three more division series bets with value.
- Check out his picks and analysis below.
Throughout the Major League Baseball playoffs, I will provide a daily breakdown summarizing my thoughts on both futures and individual games for that day.
Below, I will address how to handle betting on these playoff series, whether on the series moneyline or a game-by-game basis, while using my daily MLB Model projections.
You can also shop for the best lines on our odds page.
Using my projections, where can we find actionable value on Sunday?
Series Moneyline Corner
Sometimes, books still put up a series moneyline market, even for a winner-take-all elimination game, so check both markets before placing a bet on either side of the Game 3 moneyline.
We’ll address Padres-Mets Game 3 in further detail below.
First, let’s take a look at my projected series prices for the Divisional Round and discuss the bets that I have already placed:
Shortly after, I grabbed a piece at -170 (62.9% implied) at DraftKings. They currently sit at -200 at both Draftkings and BetMGM, -210 at FanDuel, and -250 at Caesars. I wouldn’t play the Yankees past -177, and if anything, I would look to play the Guardians at current odds, though I would need +212 or better to play the series underdog.
Seattle opened between +150 and +166 at separate books for the series with Houston. The current price sits between +180 and +210, depending on the book. I’d be willing to bet the Mariners at +178 (36% implied) or better, at a two percent edge compared to my number, but I felt compelled to bet that +210 number at Caesars, an edge of more than five percent compared to my number.
We do have an AL Pennant future on the Astros (+175 before the playoffs) and both Pennant (+3000) and World Series futures (+7500) on the Mariners (from the All-Star break), so keep that type of correlation in mind as you place divisional series bets.
Lastly, the Phillies opened between +125 and +180 for their series with the Braves. You could have capitalized on an arbitrage opportunity at -155 on Atlanta and +180 on Philadelphia at different books.
I like the Phillies’ series price down to +151 at a two percent edge compared to my series projection and happily scooped up the +180 at Caesars, at more than a six percent edge compared to my number.
Similar to the Astros-Mariners series, we have pennant and World Series futures on both the Phillies (+2000 / +4000) and Braves (+600 / +1000) – so I have to be mindful of correlation and don’t want to allocate too much to the divisional series ticket.
Still, a one-unit bet on the underdog strikes a nice balance for our overall futures portfolio.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets, 7:07 p.m. ET
Joe Musgrove vs. Chris Bassitt (full projections here)
We bet the Padres’ series price at +150 before Game 1 – which is undoubtedly a superior price to their Game 3 moneyline. Unless we see a substantial edge on the Padres’ projection for Game 3, there’s no reason to force an additional bet on their full game moneyline.
However, if you didn’t bet the Padres’ series price before Game 1, I see an actionable edge in their Game 3 projection.
I set San Diego as +110 underdogs (47.6% implied) for the first five innings (F5) and +109 underdogs (47.9% implied) for the full game and would consider betting those lines down to +119 (45.6% implied) and +118 (45.9% implied) respectively, with either bet representing an edge of at least two percent compared to my number.
Even if you have a series moneyline ticket, I’m okay playing the Padres’ F5 line to my price target (+119). However, I’d need at least +128 or higher (43.9% implied) to double down on my full game position (alongside my series ticket) at a perceived edge of greater than four percent.
I project Joe Musgrove (3.27 xERA, 3.47 xFIP, 3.45 SIERA) and Chris Bassitt (3.46 xERA, 3.72 xFIP, 3.75 SIERA) as somewhat comparable pitchers; though I do give a slight edge to Musgrove, given Bassitt’s late-season struggles.
Bassitt’s command betrayed him down the stretch, with his Strikeout Minus Walk Rate falling to 9.7% over the season’s final six weeks (4.15 FIP, 4.43 xFIP), compared to a rate of 17.6% in his 23 previous outings. Bassitt’s Strikeout Rate declined by six percent, and his Swinging Strike Rate dipped by 3.8% late in the 2022 campaign.
The Mets’ offense will get the better of the splits. As a reminder, they finished as the No. 2 offense against righties on the season (119 wRC+) and improved by nine percent to take the top spot (128) – ahead of the Dodgers (122 on the season, 120 since the deadline) in the two months since the trade deadline.
The Padres’ key relievers should be more well-rested for this matchup.
Seth Lugo worked in the first two games for the Mets – and I’d expect a “break glass in case of emergency” role for Sunday. Edwin Diaz (28 pitches) and Adam Ottavino (35 pitches) each worked as hard as they have in any game this season – with stints spanning multiple innings.
I give San Diego a slight bullpen advantage for Sunday (3.07 vs. 3.19 Model Weighted ERA).
Additionally, the Padres project as the slightly superior defensive squad in a matchup between starters who allow a healthy number of balls in play,
So, while the Mets have the superior lineup – in their ideal split – on top of home-field advantage, the Padres have slight advantages everywhere else for Game 3, which gets me close to a coinflip projection.
I don’t see any value concerning the totals at current prices, but I would bet an Under 7 at -112 or better (projected 6.42) or an Under 6.5 at +105 or better.
And to reiterate my approach – depending upon your situation, I would play the Padres as follows:
- F5 Moneyline at +119 or better (whether you have a series ticket or not)
- Full Game Moneyline at +118 or better (IF you don’t have a series ticket)
- Full Game Moneyline at +128 or better (whether you have a series ticket or not)
If you don’t have a series ticket, I will increase my bet size to 1u at +128 or higher. However, if you have that series ticket, I would only tack on a half-unit wager in that price range.
Bets for October 9
- Divisional Series Price: New York Yankees (-170, Risk 1.25u at Draftkings), bet to -177
- Divisional Series Price: Philadelphia Phillies (+180, 1u at Caesars), bet to +150
- Divisional Series Price: Seattle Mariners (+210, 1u at Caesars), bet to +166