MLB Props Odds, Expert Picks: Bets for Lucas Giolito and Drew Rasmussen
Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: Lucas Giolito.
- There's a full slate of 15 MLB games on Friday night and our props analyst has two plus-money strikeout totals for you to tail.
- He's eyeing plays on Lucas Giolito against the A's and Drew Rasmussen against the Yankees.
- Check out Tanner McGrath's picks and analysis below.
Waltz into a loaded weekend gambling card with our two favorite plus-money pitcher props, courtesy of our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Drew Rasmussen Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
|Rays vs. Yankees||Yankees -110|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
Drew Rasmussen has been on fire recently. He’s pitched to a 1.84 ERA over his last eight starts, lowering his season-long ERA to 2.70 in the process. He came within two outs of a perfect game, too.
Rasmussen has also upped his strikeout numbers, having cashed this number in three of his last four starts.
Notable K-BB% since ASB
Min 40 IP
Jacob deGrom 38.8% (1st)
Lance Lynn 29.1% (3rd)
Blake Snell 28.6% (4th)
George Kirby 25.3% (9th)
Drew Rasmussen 20.7% (19th)
Dylan Cease 17.7% (40th)
Sandy Alcantara 16.4% (44th)
Logan Webb 10.6% (73rd)
Mike Clevinger 8.2% (84th)
— James Schiano (@James_Schiano) September 9, 2022
I’ll also take this matchup with the Yankees.
Since the All-Star Break, the Yankees have been in complete free-fall. Their performance against southpaws has fallen, too. The Bronx Bombers have produced the seventh-highest Strikeout Rate (24.4%) and the third-lowest wRC+ (70) over the last 30 days.
Moreover, the Yankees have allowed the last three opposing left-handed pitchers to go over their strikeout totals. That includes:
- Jeffrey Springs with seven strikeouts yesterday (o/u 4.5)
- Patrick Sandoval with seven strikeouts on August 31st (o/u 5.5)
- Jose Suarez with six strikeouts on August 29th (o/u 4.5)
Rasmussen took on the Yankees in a relief appearance last season and fanned three over just 34 pitches. He picked up a solid 32% CSW rate.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Rasmussen for 5.7 strikeouts today, giving us a 20.2% edge over this line DraftKings is offering us.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+115)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+112)
|White Sox vs. Athletics||White Sox -170|
|First Pitch||9:40 p.m. ET|
Lucas Giolito is a guy I’ve been fading all season. He’s having a down year, although he’s been a bit unlucky (5.21 ERA, 3.68 xFIP), and he is still striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings.
But those numbers have gone down as the season has gone on. Giolito has cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in 14 of 25 starts this season but in just three of his last 10 starts.
Image credit: FanGraphs
However, that could just mean Giolito is undervalued. We would never get Gio’s over 5.5 Ks at plus-money a month ago.
The matchup today is tremendous. The Athletics are putrid, having paired the seventh-highest Strikeout Rate (23.8%) with the 27th-highest wRC+ (83) against righties this season.
Moreover, nine of Oakland’s last 15 opposing starting righties have gone over their listed strikeout totals.
Image credit: Blog.Props.Cash
If there’s a time for Giolito to figure it out, it’s now. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Giolito for 7.3 strikeouts against the A’s, making Giolito one of our top-rated plays.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+112)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10