MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Strikeout Bets to Fade the Red Sox, Angels (Monday, August 29)
Get back into the swing of baseball betting this week with these two strikeout props, courtesy of our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Dylan Bundy Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+135)
|Red Sox @ Twins|
|First Pitch||7:40 p.m. ET|
The Sox’s strikeout rates aren’t obnoxiously high, but there’s enough swing-and-miss guys on the roster to make fading them worth it. The Red Sox have allowed six of the last nine opposing starting pitchers to go over their strikeout totals.
Dylan Bundy is a volatile pitcher. He vacillates from striking out seven batters a night to striking out two, although he’s only managed to cash over 3.5 Ks in nine of 22 starts this season.
But Bundy took advantage of the Red Sox earlier this season, fanning six Sox over just 71 pitches with a 32% CSW rate. And projections are calling for him to do it again.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Bundy for 5.2 strikeouts today while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 4.5. It is absolutely worth taking a shot with him at this high plus-money line.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (+135)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Frankie Montas Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
|Yankees @ Angels|
|First Pitch||9:40 p.m. ET|
The Yankees are struggling. They’re just 9-16 in August and 14-22 since the All-Star Break. The Bronx Bombers aren’t looking dangerous these days.
The most outwardly looking sign of the Yankees’ struggle is Frankie Montas. The deadline deals that sent Jordan Montgomery to St. Louis and Montas to New York have quickly soured. Since the trade, Montgomery has a 1.76 ERA with the Cardinals while Montas has a 7.32 ERA with the Yankees.
But maybe Montas is getting undervalued here.
Because the Angels are so horrifically bad at baseball. They’re striking out at a 27% rate on the season and a 26% rate over the last 30 days. Both numbers are the worst in baseball. The Halos have allwoed the last five opposing pitchers they’ve faced to go over their strikeout totals and 12 of the last 14.
Essentially, it’s always worth fading the Halos.
Plus, Montas hosted these Angels in a start earlier this season and punched out 12 over just 101 pitches with a 32% CSW rate. He should be able to replicate that feat, and projections love him today.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Montas for 7.2 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections has him at 6.2. Either way, bet Montas to dominate the Angels today.
Pick: Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10