- The public lost two of their three plays yesterday, hitting only on Arizona.
- There’s no shortage of lopsided plays on the all-day Thursday slate, including two moneylines getting more than 80% of bets in the early going.
In yesterday’s public plays, just one of the three games we touched on was a winner: the Arizona Diamondbacks. The public whiffed on the Twins and was way off on the San Francisco over, as that game ended up being a 1-0 pitcher’s duel.
The public is very heavy on a couple of favorites today — including Arizona again.
All data as of 9:30 a.m. ET.
Seattle Mariners (-146) at Baltimore Orioles
3:05 p.m. ET
The Orioles continue to find ways to lose, blowing a ninth-inning lead and losing in 11, once again hosing contrarian bettors who take a risk on them.
So this is surprising. If you bet every MLB team getting ≤35% of bets (EXCEPT the Orioles), you have a 6.5% ROI. pic.twitter.com/gkoFX9VfHL
— Travis Reed (@BetLabsTravis) June 26, 2018
This afternoon, 86% of bettors believe Baltimore will lose once more … as is generally the case.
Why the public loves Seattle: It’s not too hard to understand this one, as the Orioles both:
B) Are starting a fella named Jimmy Yacabonis
Arizona Diamondbacks (-167) at Miami Marlins
12:10 p.m. ET
The Diamondbacks are once again on the list against the lowly Marlins. Miami took the first game of the series, but Arizona has taken the past two and looks to win a third straight with ace Zack Greinke pitching.
Why the public loves Arizona: Miami is not as bad as Baltimore, but the Marlins are sort of the Orioles of the NL. Their preseason expectations following Derek Jeter’s fire sale, along with their poor record, have led to many lopsided Marlins games this year.
Minnesota Twins (-129) vs. Chicago White Sox
2:10 p.m. ET
The White Sox have spoiled the public’s fun the past two days, winning on Tuesday with just 28% of bets and last night with 24%. The public isn’t worried, though, as they are right back on the Twinkies horse.
Why the public loves Minnesota: The Twins have been just a handful of games better than the White Sox this year, but considering Minnesota’s wild-card berth last year and Chicago’s low expectations, they can’t resist taking the Twins at the low price of -129. They also don’t believe the White Sox can win again, which is a nice example of the Gambler’s Fallacy in action.