Wednesday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Padres-Rangers, Four Other Games

Wednesday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Padres-Rangers, Four Other Games article feature image
Credit:

Eric Hosmer and Hunter Renfroe. Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Wiseguys went 2-3 on Tuesday, cashing the Cubs/Dodgers Over and Rockies/Giants Under, but losing Orioles, Angels and Padres/Rangers Over.

The Orioles (25%, +147 to +135) were the backbreaker. Baltimore led 2-1 entering the eighth but then gave up two late runs to lose 3-2. Ultimately, that was the difference between a winning night and a losing night for the Goodfellas. On to the next slate (which of course includes the Orioles).

After analyzing Wednesday’s 14-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed five MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m., 8:05 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET.

Data as of 2:30 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All total plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.

Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (-105) 

7:05 p.m. ET

Albert Einstein famously said “Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity.”

 

Well, guess what. Sharps are back on the Orioles, as insane as it may be. Baltimore is getting only 32% of bets but the Birds have fallen from +115 to -105.

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets (-111)

7:10 p.m. ET

The Mets snapped their seven-game losing streak last night, beating the Pirates 4-3. Gambler’s Fallacy says there’s no way the Metropolitans can win two straight, but sharps disagree. This game opened at a pick’em (-104 both sides) and nearly 70% of bettors are taking the Buccos.

 

But the line has moved toward New York (-104 to -111), indicating sharp reverse line movement.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins Under 7.5

7:10 p.m. ET

With Robbie Ray (4.88 ERA) coming off the DL and Wei-Yin Chen (6.70 ERA) on the mound for Miami, the public sees an easy Over, especially with the low total. However, despite 65% of bets going Over, the Under is receiving 75% of dollars, and the total dropped from 8 to 7.5.

This massive bet vs. dollar discrepancy and reverse line movement are clear indications that Goodfellas are on the Under train. An added bonus for Under backers: Dan Bellino is behind the plate, a notable Under ump since 2005 (+24.7 units).

San Diego Padres (+110) at Texas Rangers

8:05 p.m. ET

The Padres and Rangers are about as evenly matched as you can get. They have almost identical records (SD 36-46, TEX 35-46) and they’ve split the first two games of the series. Wiseguys like the Fathers to win the rubber match tonight. San Diego is getting only 46% of bets but 79% of dollars, a clear smart money discrepancy.

Cleveland Indians at St. Louis Cardinals (-115) 

8:10 p.m. ET

The public is always biased toward favorites, so when they load up on a dog, it creates rare contrarian value for wiseguys. The Indians have dropped the first two games of this series, and the public thinks they’re a good team, so they won’t get swept. Sharps disagree.

The Cards are getting only 36% of bets but 73% dollars, a massive smart money discrepancy.

Remember: The betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out the Action Network MLB betting trends page.

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For more betting info and customer support, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights.