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MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Reds-Dodgers, 2 Other Monday Games

Credit:

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock and Alex Verdugo

  • Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games on Monday, starting with Mets-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting Blue Jays-Twins (7:40 p.m. ET) and Reds-Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

The frenzy of the NBA and Stanley Cup Playoffs has gripped the gambling universe. But wiseguys aren’t abandoning their first love: baseball.

After analyzing Monday’s 10-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 1:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies

7:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (7.5)

We’re seeing a classic pros vs. Joes disagreement with this NL East over/under.

Normally, the public will pound an under with Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Nola on the mound. But because both aces have struggled out of the gate — Thor’s ERA is 4.74 and Nola’s is 6.46 — the public says “give me the over.”

However, despite 65% of bets taking the over, the under has been juiced up from -110 to -120. This indicates under liability, with books forcing wiseguys on the under to pay a heftier price.

The under is receiving only 35% of bets but 70% of dollars, further evidence of pro bettors banking on a low-scoring game.

Using our Sports Insights bet signals, we tracked three steam and reverse line moves on the under 7.5.

The under also matches the Bet Labs PRO system, Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (55.1%, +190.91 units since 2005).

It also doesn’t hurt that the wind is blowing in from left field at 16 to 20 mph.

Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins

7:40 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Twins (moved from -125 to -138)

The public doesn’t know which way to go in this one. But wiseguys have taken a clear position.

Minnesota opened as a short -125 home favorite. Currently 53% of bets are taking the plus-money with Toronto, yet the line has moved to Twins -138. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move more than a cent or two if the bets are even.

So what caused this line movement to the Twinkies?

Follow the money.

Minnesota is getting only 47% of bets but 61% of dollars, signaling smart money in their favor.

We’ve also seen wiseguys get down hard on the Twins at -128 and -130, triggering a pair of steam moves.

Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers

10:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Reds (moved from +161 to +139) and Over (7 to 7.5)

Clayton Kershaw returns from the injured list to make his season debut. And as you’d expect, the public can’t wait to get down on the lefty ace once again. This matchup is by far the most heavily bet game of the night.

The Dodgers opened as heavy -175 favorites. However, despite receiving 70% of bets, Los Angeles has fallen to -151. If it looks fishy, there’s always a reason why.

We tracked three separate steam and reverse line moves on the road dog Cincinnati, with wiseguys crushing the Reds at +160, +157 and +153. This overload of smart money on the Redlegs created big liability for the books, forcing them to adjust the line in favor of the road dog.

Wiseguys are also eyeing the over. It opened at 7, and currently 57% of bets and 90% of dollars are behind it, indicating moderate public support but also heavy smart money.

We tracked two steam and reverse line moves on the over at 7 and 7.5.

The wind is also blowing out to straightaway center at 5 to 6 mph.

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