Tuesday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Brewers-Cubs, Two Other Games
Jhoulys Chacin and Jose Quintana. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
- Sharps are betting three MLB games on Tuesday, headlined by Milwaukee Brewers-Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET), with Chicago listed as a -124 favorite with an over/under of 8.5
- Wiseguys are also betting Cleveland Indians-Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 p.m. ET) and Pittsburgh Pirates-St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET)
Baseball bettors are entering the homestretch. With the MLB regular season ending on Sept. 30, wiseguys have a little fewer than three weeks left to pad their bankrolls before switching to football betting full-time.
After analyzing Tuesday’s 16-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m., 8:05 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Rays
- Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8 to 8.5)
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
With two high-ERA pitchers going head to head (Shane Bieber 4.63 and Tyler Glasnow 5.17), the public sees an easy Over play. But wiseguys are buying low on a contrarian Under.
In the most lopsided total play of the night, 80% of bets are taking the Over. The total opened at 8, and the heavy public betting pushed it up to 8.5.
Sharps don’t seem too concerned about getting the hook. They hammered the Under 8 early at Pinnacle and BetOnline, then doubled down on the Under 8.5 at BetOnline and Heritage when the line moved one half-run.
Historically, Unders have done well in domes or closed roof stadiums (+70.86 units since 2005). The ball doesn’t carry well and the perfect conditions benefit the pitcher.
The Under also fits a top Bet Labs system: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+187.00 units since 2005).
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest MLB conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
- Sharp angle: Brewers (moved from +126 to +115)
- First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
The Beer Makers are streaking. They’re 83-62 and have won seven of their last eight games, including last night’s series opener at Wrigley. If they win tonight, they’ll tie the Cubs atop the NL Central.
Gambler’s Fallacy says the Cubs (83-60) are bound to bounce back and win tonight. But Goodfellas are back on the Brew Crew train.
Despite sending Jhoulys Chacin (14-6, 3.59 ERA) to the mound, the Brewers are still getting only 38% of bets. However, the line has moved in their favor (+126 to +115).
This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Milwaukee. Wiseguys at Pinnacle and 5Dimes got down hard on MIL +126 and +127, triggering a pair of steam moves.
The Brewers are also a road divisional dog with a high total (8.5), a profitable spot since 2005.
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
- Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8 to 7.5)
- First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
We’re seeing classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement with this NL Central total. Currently, 60% of bets are on the Over, but 79% of dollars are on the Under. This indicates that smaller bets from recreational players are on the Over, but larger, sharp wagers are on the Under.
At Pinnacle, the sharpest offshore book, the total opened at 8 (Over -120) and has flipped to 8 (Under -129). Most books have already dropped this number to 7.5, signaling market-wide reverse line movement.
Goodfellas at Pinnacle, BetOnline and ABC all hammered the Under 8.
Two additional bonuses: the wind is blowing in at 5 mph, and Jeff Nelson is behind the plate, a profitable home Under ump (+8.4 units since 2005).
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.