Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Skoglund
- Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Wednesday, headlined by Washington Nationals-Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET), with Philadelphia listed as a -130 favorite with an over/under of 7.5
- Sharps are also betting San Diego Padres-Seattle Mariners (6:40 p.m. ET) and Chicago White Sox-Kansas City Royals (8:15 p.m. ET)
Wiseguys went 1-2 with their Tuesday plays, cashing the Indians-Rays Under without a sweat but losing the Brewers moneyline and Pirates-Cardinals Under. Sharps will look to pick their spots and get back to Green Dot City tonight.
After analyzing Wednesday’s 16-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 6:40 p.m., 7:05 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners
- Sharp angle: Padres (moved from +152 to +135)
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
The Padres came up huge for the wiseguys last night, edging the Mariners, 2-1, as +196 dogs with only 38% of bets. Gambler’s Fallacy says San Diego (58-88) can’t possibly beat the M’s (79-65) again tonight.
But sharps aren’t taking the bait. The Fathers are receiving only 23% of bets — but 43% of dollars — and they’ve moved from +152 to +135.
This profitable bets vs. dollars discrepancy and big reverse line movement signal smart money on the interleague road dogs.
The Pads also fit the profitable Bet Labs system Bad Team After Win (+167.55 units since 2005).
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