Wednesday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nationals-Phillies, Two Other Games
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Skoglund
- Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Wednesday, headlined by Washington Nationals-Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET), with Philadelphia listed as a -130 favorite with an over/under of 7.5
- Sharps are also betting San Diego Padres-Seattle Mariners (6:40 p.m. ET) and Chicago White Sox-Kansas City Royals (8:15 p.m. ET)
Wiseguys went 1-2 with their Tuesday plays, cashing the Indians-Rays Under without a sweat but losing the Brewers moneyline and Pirates-Cardinals Under. Sharps will look to pick their spots and get back to Green Dot City tonight.
After analyzing Wednesday’s 16-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 6:40 p.m., 7:05 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners
- Sharp angle: Padres (moved from +152 to +135)
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
The Padres came up huge for the wiseguys last night, edging the Mariners, 2-1, as +196 dogs with only 38% of bets. Gambler’s Fallacy says San Diego (58-88) can’t possibly beat the M’s (79-65) again tonight.
But sharps aren’t taking the bait. The Fathers are receiving only 23% of bets — but 43% of dollars — and they’ve moved from +152 to +135.
This profitable bets vs. dollars discrepancy and big reverse line movement signal smart money on the interleague road dogs.
The Pads also fit the profitable Bet Labs system Bad Team After Win (+167.55 units since 2005).
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest MLB conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
- Sharp angle: Nationals (moved from +125 to +120)
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The Nats have won four in a row to improve to 73-72. Meanwhile, the Phils have gone 2-8 over their last 10 to drop to 74-70. With Cy Young candidate Aaron Nola (16-4, 2.29 ERA) toeing the rubber tonight, the public likes Philly to get back in the win column.
However, despite receiving 71% of bets, the Phillies have fallen from -135 to -130. Why would the books drop the line to give public Philly backers a better number? Because sharps have gotten down hard on the Nats.
They’re contrarian in the most heavily bet game of the night, road divisional dogs and the cherry on top: getting Stephen Strasburg at plus-money.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
- Sharp angle: Royals (moved from +111 to +113)
- First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
The Royals have won the first two games of the series. But Kansas City is 49-95, and Chicago is 56-89. So the public says the ChiSox are a slightly better team and due to win tonight and avoid the sweep.
But sharps are back aboard the Royals Train. Kansas City is getting only 28% of bets but 43% of dollars, signaling sharp money in its favor. KC also enjoys a notable line freeze. Despite getting fewer than 30% of bets, the line hasn’t budged more than a cent or two.
This indicates liability on KC, with books reluctant to hand out more plus-money to sharp KC backers. The Royals have received four different bet signals as well.
The Royals are divisional dogs with a high total, a profitable spot since 2005, and also fit the Bet Labs Bad Team After Win system.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.