- Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Wednesday, headlined by Washington Nationals-Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET), with Philadelphia listed as a -130 favorite with an over/under of 7.5
- Sharps are also betting San Diego Padres-Seattle Mariners (6:40 p.m. ET) and Chicago White Sox-Kansas City Royals (8:15 p.m. ET)
Wiseguys went 1-2 with their Tuesday plays, cashing the Indians-Rays Under without a sweat but losing the Brewers moneyline and Pirates-Cardinals Under. Sharps will look to pick their spots and get back to Green Dot City tonight.
After analyzing Wednesday’s 16-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 6:40 p.m., 7:05 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners
- Sharp angle: Padres (moved from +152 to +135)
- First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
The Padres came up huge for the wiseguys last night, edging the Mariners, 2-1, as +196 dogs with only 38% of bets. Gambler’s Fallacy says San Diego (58-88) can’t possibly beat the M’s (79-65) again tonight.
But sharps aren’t taking the bait. The Fathers are receiving only 23% of bets — but 43% of dollars — and they’ve moved from +152 to +135.
This profitable bets vs. dollars discrepancy and big reverse line movement signal smart money on the interleague road dogs. Goodfellas at Heritage and Carib got down hard on SD +146 and +145.
The Pads also fit the profitable Bet Labs system Bad Team After Win (+167.55 units since 2005).
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