Wiseguys posted another winning day yesterday, going 2-0-1 with their Thursday plays. Now it's onto "Fade the Public" Friday. Historically, today is the best day to go contrarian because Average Joes are finishing their work week and more apt to get down on games, leading to higher than usual ticket counts.
After analyzing Friday’s slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.
>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Full Sports Betting Glossary
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
San Diego Padres @ Arizona Diamondbacks
9:40 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Over (8.5)
Recreational bettors don't know which way to go with this NL West over/under. But sharps have taken a clear side.
This total opened at 8.5. Average Joes see rookie phenom Chris Paddack (1.04 ERA) and think under, but they also see Luke Weaver (6.75 ERA) and think over.
As a result of this public indecision, over/under bets are split right down the middle. However, 71% of dollars are going over. This massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy signals smart money banking on a higher-scoring game.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked a pair of steam and reverse line moves on the Over, both coming at Over 8.5.
An added bonus for Goodfellas sweating the over: Chase Field is one of the best over stadiums when the roof is open. With heavy wind patterns and desert air, the over has won 54.3% of the time (+35.51 units) when the roof is open in Arizona since 2005.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers
10:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8.5 to 8)
Public bettors see a low total and a stacked Dodgers lineup facing Corbin Burnes (9.90 ERA) and that's all they need to know. Over all day.
But not the sharps. They've buying low on a contrarian under.
This total opened at 8. Heavy public over betting (73% of bets) pushed it up to 8.5. Once the hook was available (the extra half-run), wiseguys got down hard on the inflated under.
We tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the Under 8.5 without a single conflicting over move. This overload of smart money dropped the total back down to 8.
The under also matches the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (55.1%, +190.15 units since 2005).
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants
10:15 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Giants (moved from -120 to -144)
Sharps cashed bigly on the Giants last night and they're going back to the well tonight.
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a short -120 home favorite. Currently 54% of bets are taking the Giants, indicating a slight public lean, yet the line has absolutely skyrocketed toward the G-Men (-120 to -144).
In a vacuum, relatively even betting shouldn't push a line more than a few cents. So what caused this big move?
Follow the money.
San Fran is receiving 80% of moneyline dollars, a clear sign of big money in its favor. We also tracked three separate steam and reverse line moves on SF at -113, -122 and -134. The fact that wiseguys kept hitting the G-Men even though the line got worse indicates supreme Goodfella confidence in the home favorites.
We also haven't seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Rockies despite the payout getting sweeter (+111 to +132).
