MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Cardinals-Nationals, 2 Other Wednesday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Cardinals-Nationals, 2 Other Wednesday Games article feature image
Credit:

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer (31)

  • Sharps are betting three MLB games Wednesday, headlined by Yankees-Diamondbacks (3:40 p.m. ET).
  • Wiseguys are also getting down on Cardinals-Nationals and Tigers-Phillies (both at 7:05 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys gave a unit back to the books yesterday, going 1-2 with their Tuesday plays. With only three combined NBA and NHL playoff games tonight, sharps are afforded extra time to focus on the MLB board.

Pro bettors know sometimes the breaks just don’t go your way, but the harder you work and more time you spend capping games, the better results you’ll see.

After analyzing Wednesday’s massive 17-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks

3:40 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (moved from +113 to +104)

New York (17-12) and Arizona (17-13) have nearly identical records. Because the Yankees lost last night and send ace Masahiro Tanaka (3.60 ERA) to the mound today, the public says “give me the Bombers in a classic bounce-back spot.”

Not the sharps. They’re buying low on the home dog at a virtual pick’em.

This line opened with the Yankees listed as -127 road favorites. Despite receiving 70% of bets, the line has fallen to Yanks -112.

What caused this peculiar line movement?

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed sharps getting down hard on Arizona at +112, +103 and -105. This influx of pro money created big liability for the books and forced them to drop Arizona from +113 to +104.

The Diamondbacks are receiving only 30% of bets but 55% of dollars — further evidence of wiseguy support.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals

7:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8 to 7.5)

It’s not often that you get a chance to bet a contrarian under with Max Scherzer on the mound. But sharps are afforded that opportunity tonight.

This total opened at 8. Currently 65% of bets are taking the over, yet the line has fallen to 7.5. Why would the oddsmakers drop the total a half-run to make it easier for public over bettors to cash?

If it looks fishy, there’s a reason.

We tracked three separate steam and reverse line moves on the under — all coming on the Under 8. We haven’t seen a single conflicting over move (or buyback).

 

Detroit Tigers @ Philadelphia Phillies

7:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8.5 to 7.5)

Recreational bettors don’t know which way to go with this Interleague over/under. But wiseguys have taken a clear side.

This total opened at 8.5. Bets are currently split 50/50, but a whopping 84% of dollars are coming in on the under. This massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy indicates professional action expecting a low-scoring game.

We’ve noticed four steam and reverse line moves on the under — with two coming at Under 8.5 and two more at 8.

The fact that Goodfellas kept hitting the under despite the line getting worse signals wiseguy confidence.