MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Giants-Dodgers, 2 Other Wednesday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Giants-Dodgers, 2 Other Wednesday Games article feature image

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Russell Martin (55).

  • Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Wednesday, headlined by Chicago Cubs-Atlanta Braves (7:20 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Houston Astros-Texas Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET) and San Francisco Giants-Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys continued their hot streak yesterday, going 2-1 with their Tuesday plays. It might not be sexy, but focusing on sharp, contrarian unders has been a big moneymaker for pro bettors. They’ll look to stay fearless but selective and keep the good vibes going today.

After analyzing Wednesday’s 14-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.

>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Chicago Cubs @ Atlanta Braves

7:20 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Braves (moved from +102 to -126)

On the surface, line movement by itself may not tell the whole story. It can be caused by heavy public betting, sharp action or a combination of both. The key is comparing the line movement to the betting percentages.

This moneyline is a perfect example.

Jon Lester and the Cubs opened as short -110 road favorites. The bets are pretty much split down the middle (53% on Atlanta), but the line has absolutely skyrocketed toward the Braves (+102 to -126).

In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move more than a few cents if the bets are relatively even. So we know this movement is a dead giveaway that sharps are backing Julio Teheran and the Braves (67% of dollars).

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed two steam moves on Atlanta, flipping them from the dog to favorite. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on Chicago.

Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers

8:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (9)

Sharps are squares (casual bettors who wager for fun) will be sweating the same side of this AL West over/under.

The total opened at 9. Currently 75% of bets and 85% of dollars are taking the under, thinking that the total is way too high with Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.88 ERA last season) taking the mound.

This heavy combo of public and sharp action forced oddsmakers to juice up the under from 9 Under -110 to 9 Under -119. This signals under liability with the next move likely down to 8.5.

Two additional reasons why sharps love the under: the weather and the home plate ump.

The wind is blowing in at 16 mph, making the under a match for our Wind Blowing In Bet Labs Pro System (55%, +99.37 units won since 2005).

In addition, Ron Kulpa will be calling balls and strikes. Unders have won at a 57% clip since 2005 with Kulpa behind the plate.


San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers

10:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 7.5 to 7)

You can’t draw up a sharper play than this NL West under. Casual bettors see a low total with Derek Holland on the mound and automatically say, “it has to go over.” But not the wiseguys.

Currently 71% of bets are on the over, yet the total has fallen from 7.5 to 7. Why would the books drop the line and make it easier for Average Joes to hit the over? As always, follow the money.

Only 29% of bets are on the under, but it accounts for nearly 90% of dollars. This massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy signals smart money banking on a low-scoring game.

We tracked two steam and reverse line moves on the under, with sharps crushing the Under 7.5.

A cherry on top for sharp under takers: Dan Bellino will be calling balls and strikes. The under has won 57.1% of the time and produced +24.96 units with Bellino behind the plate since 2005.

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