MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Reds-Cardinals, 2 Other Tuesday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Reds-Cardinals, 2 Other Tuesday Games article feature image

St. Louis Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong. Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

  • Baseball is the only game in town tonight and wiseguys are loading up on three MLB plays.
  • Sharps are getting down on Twins-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET), Rockies-Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET) and Reds-Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Today has the makings of a sneaky sharp gambling day for wiseguy MLB bettors. Without any NBA or NHL to get down on, baseball is the only game in town.

As a result, Average Joes who are thirsty for action will be flooding the market with casual money, leading to increased contrarian value for pros.

After analyzing Tuesday’s juicy 15-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a pair of MLB games.

>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Indians (moved from -120 to -130)

The Twins have been an absolute wagon so far this season. At 40-18, Minnesota owns the second-best record in baseball (trailing the Dodgers by only a half-game).

The Twinkies have also been a massive moneymaker for bettors. A $100 bet on the Twins every game this season has produced a whopping $1,688.

As a result, it’s no surprise that the public is all over Minnesota at a plus-money price. But not the sharps. They’re buying low on the Indians (29-30) at home and fading the trendy dog.

This game opened with Cleveland listed as a short -120 favorite, and Minnesota a +111 road dog. Currently 74% of bets are backing the Twins, yet we’ve seen this line move further toward the Tribe (-120 to -130). Normally, such heavy action would cause the line to move toward the popular side, not away from it.

What caused this peculiar line movement?

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked three steam and reverse line moves on Cleveland, with wiseguys hammering CLE at -125, -128 and -135 at various books across the market. We haven’t seen any conflicting moves (or buyback) on Minnesota.

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs

8:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 10 to 10.5)

It’s a misconception that sharps and squares are never on the same side of a game. While somewhat rare, it does happen from time to time. This Wrigley Field over/under is a perfect example.

The total opened at 10. Currently 72% of bets are taking the over, but it also accounts for 95% of dollars. This heavily lopsided action from both casual and pro bettors forced oddsmakers to adjust the total up to 10.5.

Recreational bettors likely side with the over due to Jeff Hoffman’s 7.20 ERA. But wiseguys love this over due to the weather.

The wind is blowing out to straight away center field at 10-13 mph, which wiseguys hope will turn a few warning track outs into home runs.

According to our Bet Labs database, the over has won 60% of the time at Wrigley Field when the wind is blowing out at 10 mph or more.

Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals

8:15 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Cardinals (moved from +114 to +105)

It’s not often that Goodfellas can back the Cardinals at home as contrarian plus-money dogs against a team with a worse record. But that’s exactly what sharps are afforded tonight. Talk about good value that you can’t pass up.

In the eyes of the public, this game is all about the pitching matchup. Cincinnati (27-32) sends Luis Castillo (5-1, 2.45 ERA) to the hill, while St. Louis (30-28) features a rookie who just got lit up in his first career start (Genesis Cabrera 0-1, 7.36 ERA).

Red Legs all day, right?

This NL Central moneyline opened with Cincinnati listed as a short -123 road favorite. Currently 60% of  bets are backing Cincy, but we’ve seen the line fall to Reds -112. Why would the books drop the price on the Red Legs if the public is already backing them?

Because wiseguys got down hard on the Cardinals (40% of bets but 54% of dollars).

We’ve tracked four Bet Signals on St. Louis, with sharps crushing STL twice at +124 and then again at +115 and +112. The fact that pros kept hitting the Red Birds despite the payout getting worse indicates supreme wiseguy confidence in the home team.

The Cards are also divisional dogs with a high total (9), a profitable spot since 2005.

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