The Atlanta Braves host the Miami Marlins on August 7, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSFL.
NL East rivals Atlanta and Miami will play the first of five straight head-to-head matchups Thursday, including a doubleheader Saturday due to a postponed April 6 game. Surprisingly, it is the Marlins who enter this series with more to play for in the remainder of the season, and they are favored to win the opener as Eury Perez (2.70 ERA, 50 IP) will face off against Carlos Carrasco (5.68 ERA, 38 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Marlins vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Marlins vs Braves Prediction
- Marlins vs Braves pick: Marlins Moneyline -125 (Play to -130)
My Marlins vs Braves best bet is on the Marlins ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Braves Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Marlins vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Eury Perez (MIA) | Stat | RHP Carlos Carrasco (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 2.70/2.76 | ERA /xERA | 5.68/4.72 |
| 2.79/4.20 | FIP / xFIP | 5.22/4.62 |
| 0.94 | WHIP | 1.53 |
| 16.8% | K-BB% | 10.7% |
| 30.4% | GB% | 37.3% |
| 116 | Stuff+ | 83 |
| 91 | Location+ | 102 |
Nick Martin’s Marlins vs Braves Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview: Trending Up with Perez on the Mound
The Marlins have overachieved expectations in sporting a record just one game below .500 and, based on their -48 run differential, likely have been fortunate to own a winning percentage of .495. However, throughout their last 40 games, they hold a run differential of +41 and a record of 27-13.
So while the Marlins' overall run differential and expected win/loss do suggest they have had some good luck this season, they have also been playing at a significantly higher level now than they were early on when they were being outscored heavily on average.
Since July 1 the Marlins have been slightly better than average offensively with a wRC+ of 101. In that span they hold the ninth-best BB/K ratio in baseball and rank 11th in hard-hit rate. They hold great splits versus right-handed pitching in that span, as they own a wRC+ of 116 and have struck out at the fourth lowest rate in MLB.
Miami's starters have pitched to the fifth-lowest ERA in baseball since July 1st, with an ERA of 3.47 across 173 and 2/3 innings of work. Perez has been dominant during that span, pitching to an ERA of 1.06 across 34 innings of work (six starts). He holds an xFIP of 3.63 in those outings and a strikeout minus walk rate of 23.4%.
Perez holds an elite Stuff+ rating of 116 this season and a Pitching+ rating of 106. He's allowed an xBA of .194 and allowed a batting average of .165.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Veteran Carrasco Struggles to Find Form
For a third straight season, Carrasco holds an ERA of north of 5.50 throughout his initial 38 innings of work. The veteran righty could be due for a little positive regression based on his 4.72 xERA and 4.62 xFIP but still appears likely to offer well below average results moving forward.
Carrasco holds a Stuff+ rating of just 82 and a Pitching+ rating of 89, and a strikeout minus walk rate of 10.7%. He's allowed a zone contact rate of 89.7% and ranks in the 30th percentile with a chase rate of just 26.6%.
The Braves offense has trended into more respectable form of late, as since July 1st it ranks 15th in wRC+ and 18th in OPS. They rank 19th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching in that span and have struck out at the fifth-highest rate.
Marlins vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis
Perez has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball over the last month, and that comes as no surprise considering his tremendous arsenal. He offers a significant edge over Carrasco, who has struggled mightily throughout the last three seasons as he winds down an excellent career.
The Marlins have been one of the best teams in the league versus right-handed pitching throughout their 27-13 tear towards .500, and their process numbers in that span have also improved.
It may not be likely that Miami continues to hit this effectively moving forward, but given the edge that Perez offers Carrasco, we don't need to give the Marlins offense that much credit to like them in this spot.
At -130 or better, I see value backing the Marlins to take the series opener with their dominant young righty on the mound.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -125 (Play to -130)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Marlins to win is my favorite play from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Marlins to cover the run-line at +135 also looks to hold value.
Over/Under
My lean would have been with the under at the former total of 8.5, but the current mark of 8 looks fair for this matchup.
