The Seattle Mariners host the Chicago White Sox on August 7, 2025. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on ROOT Sports NW.
The Mariners face the White Sox in the series finale on Thursday afternoon. Seattle enters as heavy -270 favorites with a 7.5 run total.
Find my MLB betting preview and White Sox vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My White Sox vs Mariners Prediction
- White Sox vs Mariners picks: Under 7.5 runs (play to 7)
My White Sox vs Mariners best bet is Under 7.5 runs (play to 7). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
White Sox vs Mariners Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +220 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -275 |
White Sox vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shane Smith (CHW) | Stat | RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-7 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.1 |
| 4.25 / 4.41 | ERA / xERA | 3.45 / 2.71 |
| 4.39 / 4.53 | FIP / xFIP | 2.76 / 2.42 |
| 1.31 | WHIP | 0.98 |
| 6.2 | K-BB% | 6.2 |
| 41 | GB% | 42.2 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 98 | Location+ | 113 |
Sean Paul’s White Sox vs Mariners Preview
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: No One Better Than Gilbert These Days
The Mariners have arguably the best rotation in baseball. You won’t find a better 1-2-3-4 than Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Luis Castillo. Seattle will lead off this series finale with Gilbert on the mound, and he’s become Seattle’s ace.
Gilbert is a much better pitcher than his 3.45 indicates. All of his underlying metrics, such as his 2.71 xERA, 2.76 FIP, and 2.42 xFIP, puts Gilbert among the best pitchers in the sport.
His Baseball Savant page is also just filled with red circles. The 6-6 flamethrower ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA, xERA, whiff rate, chase rate, and is 88th percentile in walk rate. In more impressive numbers, Gilbert punches out 12 batters per nine and walks just 2.07 per nine.
Seattle looked like it had enough offense to help its elite pitching staff potentially chase an AL West title. That's still on the table, but it won't be easy if the offense can't get rolling again.
From May 1st to June 30th, the Mariners ranked 10th with a 106 wRC+, and their strikeout rate dipped to 22.4%. It doesn't hurt that Cal Raleigh basically carried the team, posting a 205 wRC+ with 23 homers in a 53-game span.
However, Raleigh is back to reality. Since hoisting the Home Run Derby trophy, Raleigh hit just four homers with a 75 wRC+ and a 37.8% K rate in 18 games.
So with Raleigh struggling, the Mariners' offense is collapsing. They rank 24th in MLB with a 94 wRC+ and a 25.4% K rate since the All-Star break. And while adding slugger Eugenio Suarez into the lineup gives the Mariners some offensive punch at third base, he's another swing-and-miss threat. He's an elite power threat, though. He's just super, super streaky.
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview: White Sox Finding Their Power
The White Sox sent just one player to the All-Star game, and it was Thursday's starter, Shane Smith. You're probably wondering how Smith managed to be an All-Star despite a 4.25 ERA.
For one, the White Sox are struggling, and every team needs one player to represent them. And two, Smith allowed 20 earned runs in his last 18 1/3 innings, spanning five starts. That stretch derailed his numbers.
Smith doesn't have eye-popping metrics, posting a 4.41 xERA and 4.39 FIP to pair with his 4.25 ERA. He hasn't been "unlucky," but he's way better than his recent stretch. Smith flashes a four-pitch mix with a fastball that averages 95.6 mph and solid breaking stuff that can keep the Mariners' swing-happy lineup off-balance.
Plus, we know the Mariners love hitting homers. Their team is comprised of power bats. On the flip side, Smith allows fewer than a homer per nine innings.
The White Sox rank fourth in MLB with a 127 wRC+ since the All-Star break. I'm sure that's a pretty big stunner, but their scoring 27 runs in three games against the Pirates boosted the numbers a bit.
Chicago found its power stroke, hitting 31 homers, which is tied for second-best, while punching out 18.2% of the time. But as Bryan Woo showed on Monday, great pitching can eliminate good hitting. I expect to see the same thing when Gilbert takes the mound.
White Sox vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'll take the under here. I don't foresee the White Sox's offensive hitting for elite power much longer, especially versus an ace like Gilbert.
On the flip side, Seattle is better than the 24th-best offense, like I said earlier. The Mariners' offense is very home-run heavy now, and Smith's ability to limit the long ball should keep Seattle in check.
Gilbert is just dominant. He'll have an ERA below 3.00 in no time, and it begins with Chicago on Thursday.
Pick: Under 7.5 runs (play to 7)
Moneyline
Pass on the ML.
Run Line (Spread)
Pass on the spread.
Over/Under
I like the under.
