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MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Phillies-Mets, 2 Other Monday Games

Credit:

New York Mets right fielder Michael Conforto (30) and center fielder Juan Lagares (12) and left fielder Keon Broxton (23). Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games on Monday, headlined by Phillies-Mets (7:10 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting Diamondbacks-Pirates (7:05 p.m. ET) and Royals-Rays (7:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Playoff mania continues to grip the NBA and NHL betting spheres, but wiseguys remain committed to grinding baseball from the start to the bitter end. Sharps will remain fearless but disciplined and look to start a new week off on the right foot.

After analyzing Monday’s 10-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates

7:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (moved from +129 to +119)

In the eyes of the public, this game is all about the starting pitchers. Zack Godley’s ERA is 6.26 while Joe Musgrove’s in 0.81. Back the ace at home all day, right?

Not so fast, say the sharps. Once again, they’re buying on bad news and selling on good news in order to capitalize on bias and extract additional value.

The Pirates opened as -140 favorites. Nearly 70% of bets are backing the Buccos, yet they’ve fallen to -129. Why would the oddsmakers drop the Pittsburgh price to give Average Joes a better number?

If it looks too good to be true, it almost always is.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed three separate steam and reverse line moves on the road dog, with Goodfellas crushing Arizona twice at +130 and again at +125. The DBacks are receiving only 32% of bets but nearly half the money (48%), another sign that professional bettors are dropping big dollars on the Snakes.

The D’Backs also find themselves in a profitable historical spot, as they fit the Bet Labs PRO system Contrarian Betting Against Good Team (+134.45 units, 12.6% ROI since 2005).

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Mets (moved from +102 to -111)

This NL East showdown is by far the most heavily bet and most intriguing matchup of the night, which means it’s flooded with recreational money. And of course, sharps and squares (causal bettors who bet for fun) are on completely different sides.

With the Phillies sending Jake Arrieta (3-1, 2.25 ERA) to the mound at a coin-flip price, nearly 80% of bets are backing Philly. However, after opening as a short road favorite, Philadelphia has moved from -110 to +103 while New York has gone from +102 to -111.

In other words, despite receiving massive public support, Philly has flipped from a favorite to a dog. What gives?

We’ve tracked seven different steam and reverse line moves on the Mets, coming at +100, -103, -107, -108 (twice), -109 and -110. This overload of sharp action forced oddsmakers to adjust the line toward the Metropolitans.

The Mets are receiving only 22% of bets (giving them great contrarian value in the most heavily bet game of the night), but they’re also getting 47% of dollars — further evidence of big wagers in their favor.

Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 8.5 to 8)

Average Joes don’t know which way to go with this over/under. But sharps have taken a clear position.

This total opened at 8.5. Bets are currently split 50/50, but more than 90% of dollars are coming in on the under. This influx of heavy pro money forced oddsmakers to drop the total down to 8. Some books have even touched 7.5.

We’ve tracked three bet signals on the under, all coming at Under 8.

Wiseguys love betting unders at Tropicana Field. According to our Bet Labs software, the under has won 53.8% of the time (+41 units) at the Trop since 2005. This is due to the fact that dome unders provide ideal conditions for pitchers and fielders, plus bad sight lines for hitters and the ball doesn’t travel well off the bat.

If it’s a non-division game, Trop unders improve to 55.2%.

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