The Boston Red Sox host the Texas Rangers on May 6, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on RSN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Rangers vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction
- Rangers vs Red Sox picks: Rangers ML (-120, BetMGM | Play to -125)
My Rangers vs Red Sox best bet is on the Rangers ML. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Rangers vs Red Sox Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9 +100o / -120u | -120 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 +100o / -120u | +100 |
Rangers vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) | Stat | RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 2.11 / 3.67 | ERA /xERA | 4.50 / 5.34 |
| 2.32 / 2.41 | FIP / xFIP | 6.07 / 3.88 |
| 0.77 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 26.4 | K-BB% | 20 |
| 48.6 | GB% | 37.5 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 106 | Location+ | 114 |
Tony Sartori’s Rangers vs Red Sox Preview
Texas Rangers Betting Preview: Eovaldi's Steady Hand in Charge
The Texas Rangers hand the ball to right-hander Nathan Eovaldi in this matchup, and he should serve as a strong candidate to back.
Eovaldi has consistently been one of the stronger pitchers in the American League this decade.
He has posted an ERA of 3.87 or better in each of the past five seasons, and that success has continued into 2025.
Eovaldi boasts a 2.11 ERA and 0.77 WHIP through seven starts. He also ranks in the league's top half among qualified pitchers in expected ERA (xERA), strikeout rate, walk rate, and barrel rate allowed.
One of those starts came against the Boston Red Sox, in which Eovaldi allowed just two runs on three hits through six innings of work.
Following Eovaldi is a strong bullpen. Entering this matchup, Texas ranks 12th among MLB bullpens in reliever FIP and reliever fWAR.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Giolito Returns, But Expectations Remain Tempered
Meanwhile, right-hander Lucas Giolito takes the mound for Boston.
Giolito made his first start since 2023 last week, and he didn’t give many reasons for optimism.
He posted a 4.50 ERA in that outing, and his analytics from the performance were even worse. The right-hander produced a 5.34 xERA and, if he qualified, would currently rank in the league's bottom half in expected batting average allowed (xBA), average exit velocity allowed, barrel rate allowed, and hard-hit rate allowed.
Furthermore, this current Rangers roster possesses a strong track record against Giolito.
Through 71 combined plate appearances, current Texas hitters boast a .415 slugging percentage.
Finally, the Red Sox have dropped each of their past three games against Texas.
Rangers vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
The clear starting pitching advantage goes to the Rangers.
Eovaldi has consistently delivered since 2020, while Giolito faces an uphill battle in returning to form following a multi-year absence.
Giolito struggled in his first outing, and his underlying metrics suggest he may perform even worse moving forward.
This line is only close because Boston possesses the more potent lineup.
However, this Rangers group has fared well against Giolito, minimizing that gap.
My Pick: Rangers ML (-120, BetMGM | Play to -125)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting on the Rangers moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like Texas to cover, but find more value in just taking the outright ML price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the Over, but don't want to fade Eovaldi.
