The Miami Marlins host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 6, 2025. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA.
The Marlins will look to avoid a series loss to the Dodgers. After dropping game one, Miami will look in Cal Quantrill's direction to save the series against Tony Gonsolin and Los Angeles, which enters as a -275 road favorite.
Find my MLB betting preview and Dodgers vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, and more.
My Dodgers vs Marlins Prediction
- Dodgers vs Marlins picks: Over 9.5 (-140 or better)
My Dodgers vs Marlins best bet is on the Over. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Dodgers vs Marlins Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -118 | 9.5 +100 / -120 | -275 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 9.5 +100 / -120 | +220 |
Dodgers vs Marlins Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Cal Quantrill (MIA) | Stat | RHP Tony Gonsolin (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | W-L | 1-0 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 8.10 / 6.74 | ERA /xERA | 4.50 / 2.35 |
| 5.55 / 4.87 | FIP / xFIP | 2.24 / 1.97 |
| 1.80 | WHIP | 1.00 |
| 4.9 | K-BB% | 37.5 |
| 39.4 | GB% | 21.4 |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 91 |
| 95 | Location+ | 125 |
Sean Paul’s Dodgers vs Marlins Preview
Miami Marlins Betting Preview: Quantrill's Numbers Paint a Bleak Picture
If this pitching matchup sounds familiar, it’s because we got the same matchup six days ago.
Marlins righty Cal Quantrill looked strong in the first couple of innings before collapsing.
Quantrill has been among the worst pitchers in baseball, posting a horrendous 8.10 ERA with a 6.75 xERA.
There are three per-nine-inning statistics worth looking at for pitchers, and Quantrill grades out poorly in all three. He can't strike anyone out (5.4 K/9), lacks command (3.4 BB/9), and allows too many homers (1.7 HR/9).
If his Savant page is any indication, this start won’t get much better.
Quantrill ranks in the 15th percentile or worse among qualified starting pitchers in xERA, xBA allowed, average exit velo, barrel rate allowed, and hard-hit rate allowed.
The metrics show that Quantrill hasn’t been unlucky; he’s just been a nightmare.
The Marlins' offense is better than I thought it would be.
Since April 15th, they rank 24th in MLB with an 88 wRC+, led by Kyle Stowers, who boasts a 162 wRC+ across his past 17 games. Between Stowers, Dane Myers, and Agustin Ramirez, the Marlins have a strong top three to build around.
Their offense looked strong in their past seven contests, scoring four or more runs in four of those seven, including six or more twice in two of the three games in Dodger Stadium.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Gonsolin Returns Strong as Offense Keeps Rolling
There’s no better way to acclimate to MLB hitters than facing the Marlins twice.
Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin lucked out there, as he tossed six innings with three runs and nine strikeouts in his first start in two years.
Gonsolin was even a bit unlucky in his first outing. He finished the start with a 4.50 ERA but had a 2.35 xERA and 2.24 FIP. I was very impressed with his nine strikeouts — he posted a 7.1 K/9 rate in 2023, so we'll see if he can maintain the improved rate.
Still, the Marlins are capable of stringing together runs.
The offense isn't excellent, but they somehow cobbled together four runs on Monday to make that loss less lopsided. I could see more of the same on Tuesday.
If Gonsolin gets in serious traffic and a deep pitch count, Dave Roberts could go to the bullpen earlier. On Monday, Ben Casparius covered 4 2/3 innings as the bulk guy, so the pen could wind up being taxed after a long series in Atlanta.
Pairing arguably the best offense in MLB against arguably the worst pitcher in baseball is a recipe for success. The Dodgers erupted for 13 hits and seven runs in the series-opening win against the Marlins.
That's more dominance from the second-best offense in baseball since April 15th. During that time, the Dodgers have posted an impressive 135 wRC+ with a dazzling 10.3% walk rate and a strong 20.8% strikeout rate.
Los Angeles has a deep lineup when Enrique Hernandez and Andy Pages see the ball well. That provides an extra layer of depth to the Dodgers' lineup. Hernandez and Pages are two of the nine Dodgers with a 106 wRC+ or better since April 15th.
You'd likely assume Mookie Betts is one of the nine, but it’s actually backup catcher Austin Barnes. If the Dodgers' lineup has a 136 wRC+ with Betts hitting .220 for three weeks, then brighter days likely lie ahead.
The Dodgers' offense is scary, and I trust them to put up a lopsided scoring performance more than any other team.
Dodgers vs Marlins Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm probably buying high on the Dodgers here, but I'm okay with that.
The Marlins had no business putting together three runs against Gonsolin the first time around, and Quantrill will be lucky to avoid a blowup outing.
I can't foresee Quantrill limiting this Dodgers lineup. He has nothing to put the Los Angeles hitters away, especially with its propensity for drawing walks.
The Marlins are 3-3 in Quantrill starts this season, allowing 10 or more runs thrice (all losses).
The Dodgers are too juiced on the moneyline and run line, so I'm rolling with the Over.
I could see the Dodgers' bats exploding here, but I could also see the Marlins piecing together a few runs.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-140 or better)
Moneyline
I'm not playing the moneyling.
Run Line (Spread)
I'll pass on the run line.
Over/Under
I'm taking the Over in this matchup.
