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MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Pirates-Tigers, 3 Other Wednesday Games

Credit:

Detroit Tigers shortstop Gordon Beckham (29) celebrates with second baseman Ronny Rodriguez (60). Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are getting down on four MLB games on Wednesday, headlined by Pirates-Tigers (6:40 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting Indians-Mariners (6:40 p.m. ET), Giants-Nationals (7:05 p.m. ET) and Cubs-Marlins (7:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys bounced back bigly yesterday, going a perfect 4-0 with their Tuesday plays. Baseball is the most volatile sport to bet on, with the highest peaks and lowest valleys. This can test the mental toughness of new bettors, but seasoned wiseguys know to never get too high or too low. Just keep grinding.

After analyzing Wednesday’s 14-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Cleveland Indians @ Seattle Mariners

6:40 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (8)

Casual bettors take one look at both starting pitchers’ ERAs (Carlos Carrasco 12.60 and Erik Swanson 9.00) and that’s all they need to know. Over all day.

But wiseguys aren’t taking the bait. They’re buying on bad news and see value in a contrarian under.

The total opened at a relatively low 8. Currently 66% of bets are going over, but they account for only 52% of dollars, indicating predominantly $5 Average Joe support.

Meanwhile, the total has remained frozen at 8 with heavy juice on the under (-114). Some books even dipped briefly to 7.5. This signals under liability.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked three separate steam and reverse line moves on the Under 8.

Mike Muchlinski is also behind the plate tonight. The under has won 53.9% of the time (+14.66 units) with Muchlinski calling balls and strikes (since 2005).

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers

6:40 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Tigers (moved from +105 to -102) and Over (8 to 8.5)

Sharps have taken a side on both the moneyline and over/under in this Interleague showdown.

The Pirates opened as short -114 road favorites. However, despite receiving 66% of bets, the Pirates have fallen to -106. Why would the books hand out a better number to public bettors when they’re already on the Bucs?

Follow the money.

The Tigers are getting only 34% of bets but 59% of dollars. This smart money discrepancy pushed the line toward Detroit (+105 to -102). We also tracked two big steam and reverse line moves on DET and haven’t seen a single conflicting Pirates move (or buyback).

Sharps also love this contrarian over. It opened at 8 and currently 53% of bets are going under, but 61% of dollars are going over. Plus the line has risen to 8.5.

We’ve tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the over.

 

San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals

7:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Giants (moved from +131 to +121)

The Giants stole Game 1 from the Nationals last night, 7-3. Gambler’s Fallacy says San Fran is terrible, the Nats are a perennial contender and “have to” bounce back and win tonight at home. But sharps aren’t buying it.

This line opened with Washington listed as a moderate -142 home favorite. Nearly 70% of bets are laying the moneyline price, however, the Nats have fallen to -131.

Wiseguys crushed the G-Men twice at +130 and then again at +121, triggering three bet signals. San Fran also enjoys a profitable smart money discrepancy, as it’s getting only 33% of bets but 61% of dollars.

This influx of smart money forced oddsmakers to drop the Giants from +131 to +121.

Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 8 to 8.5)

Recreational bettors don’t know which way to go with this over/under. But sharps have taken a clear side.

This total opened at 8. Bets are split right down the middle, yet the total has risen a half-run up to 8.5. In a vacuum, a total shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even (aside from a juice adjustment of a cent or two).

So what caused this total to rise?

Using our Sports Insights betting trends, we’ve tracked 80% of dollars coming in on the over, signaling heavy money banking on a higher-scoring game.

We’ve also noticed four separate steam and reverse line moves on the over, all coming at Over 8. We haven’t seen a single conflicting under move (or buyback).

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