MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Red Sox-Astros, 2 Other Friday Games
Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts (50) celebrates with teammate shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2). Credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are a blistering 7-0 over the past three days.
- Tonight they're getting down on 3 games: Padres-Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET), Rays-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET) and Red Sox-Astros (8:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Now it’s “Fade-the-Public Friday.” Historically, today is the best day of the week for pros. With casual bettors finishing their workweeks (and getting their latest paychecks), Average Joes are more apt to get down on games. As a result, the market is flooded with casual money, providing Goodfellas softer-than-usual lines to exploit.
>> All odds as of 1:45 p.m. ET. Remember: the betting market is fluid and constantly moving. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
San Diego Padres @ Toronto Blue Jays
7:07 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Blue Jays (moved from +120 to +111)
On paper, this looks like a layup for the Padres.
San Diego (26-24) has a better record than Toronto (20-30) and the Padres are riding a three-game winning streak while the Jays have lost three of their last four.
So you know what the wiseguys are doing: selling high on the Fathers and buying low on the Jays at home, of course.
This game opened with the Padres listed as short -130 road favorites. Currently 62% of bets are backing the Pads, yet the line has moved away from San Diego (-130 to -120) and toward Toronto (+120 to +111).
This peculiar line movement toward the unpopular side is a clear signal that big pro bettors are buying low on the home dog.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve noticed four separate steam and reverse line moves on the Jays, with sharps hitting Toronto at +122, +120, +115 and +107 at various books across the market. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on the Padres.
An added bonus for Goodfellas sweating the Birds: American League teams have dominated National League teams in interleague play, winning +125.71 units since 2005.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Indians
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Indians (moved from +130 to +123)
Wiseguys don’t have allegiances. They aren’t fans. They never let bias inform their decisions. Remember, they bet numbers, not players or teams. They might bet on a team one day and against that same team the next.
This game is a perfect example.
Sharps cashed on the Rays last night, but they’re fading them tonight.
Tampa Bay (29-18) opened as a -141 road favorite. With Blake Snell on the mound, nearly 80% of bets are laying the moneyline price with the Rays, expecting an easy win.
However, despite this heavy public support, Tampa has fallen from -141 to -133. Why would the Rays’ price get better if the public is already hammering them?
Because pro bettors with high win rates and long track records of success got down hard on the Tribe (25-24), creating big liability that forced oddsmakers to adjust the price in their favor.
We’ve noticed two big steam moves on Cleveland at +135 and +131 across the market. This overload of sharp action dropped the Indians down to +123.
Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros
8:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Red Sox (line has remained at -138)
The public sees the mighty Astros at home as a juicy plus-money underdog and that’s all they need to know. Hammer the ‘Stros!
Not the sharps. They see a line that stinks and are buying low on Chris Sale and the Sox in a rare contrarian spot.
This marquee game of the night opened with Boston listed as -140 road favorites and Houston a +120 dog. Currently 62% of bets are backing the Astros, yet the line hasn’t budged from the opening number, with most books still sitting at Boston -138 or higher.
Normally, a team in Houston’s position (getting nearly two-thirds of bets) would see the line move in its favor from +120 down to +110 or so. The fact that it didn’t drop despite heavy public support is a dead giveaway sharps are holding the line on Sale and company.
We’ve also tracked two steam and reverse line moves on the Red Sox, without any conflicting moves on the ‘Stros. This means the Astros’ support is purely public, without any sharp backing.