MLB Sharp Report: How Pros Are Betting a High Coors Field Over/Under

MLB Sharp Report: How Pros Are Betting a High Coors Field Over/Under article feature image
Credit:

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nolan Arenado

  • Sharps are moving lines on Monday's MLB board.
  • See how they're betting Reds-Nats (7:05 p.m. ET), Red Sox-Indians (7:10) and D-backs-Rockies (8:40).

Monday’s slate brings with it the start of eight fresh new series, including a return home to Coors Field for the Rockies. Of course, for bettors that means one thing is almost certain: a high total.

Sharps haven’t shied away from betting the high number in Colorado, and they’ve hit a couple of earlier Monday starts as well: Reds-Nats and Red Sox-Indians.


>> All odds as of 12:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals

7:05 p.m. ET | Anthony DeSclafani (7-6, 4.20 ERA) vs. Erick Fedde (2-2, 4.20 ERA)

After opening as high as +127, the Reds are now -110 favorites tonight in the nation’s capital. That significant line move has come despite only 41% of bettors taking Cincy, which should make it fairly clear that sharps are among that minority.

Sports Insights’ Bet Signals and money percentages also lead to that conclusion, as they’ve both displayed signs of professional action on the road team. Three steam and reverse line moves have been triggered on Cincy, indicating three instances of market-wide line moves caused by sharps.

The 41% of bets on the Reds have also accounted for 63% of actual money being wagered, revealing how bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are approaching this moneyline.

Sharp angle: (moved from +127 to -110)

Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

7:10 p.m. ET | Eduardo Rodriguez (13-5, 4.17 ERA) vs. Zach Plesac (6-3, 3.13 ERA)

Though not nearly as dramatic, a similar line move is taking place in tonight’s Red Sox-Indians matchup. The slumping Sox are unsurprisingly getting just 31% of bets, but they’ve moved to -115 in a game that opened as a pick’em.

Once again, that slim backing has accounted for a higher percentage of actual dollars, with Boston raking in 44% of overall money. Two SI Bet Signals have also pointed out sharp action hitting the Red Sox, who are sitting in what’s been a profitable spot in 2019.

Favorites receiving the minority of bets against teams at .600 or better have gone 45-30 this year, winning $1,045 for a $100 bettor.

Sharp angle: Red Sox (moved from -105 to -115)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

8:40 p.m. ET | Merrill Kelly (7-12, 4.52 ERA) vs. Peter Lambert (2-3, 6.87 ERA)

As is almost always the case in Rockies home games, this opened with the highest total on Monday’s slate. Typically, the public finds itself leaning toward the over when it comes to betting totals, as most bettors would much rather root for runs than outs.

But with a number like 13.5, it’s not surprising to see just 40% of bettors brave enough to bet on a 14-run game.

What is a bit surprising, though, is that this total has gotten even higher since opening. Most books are currently listing a 14, while those that aren’t quite ready to shift the run total have at least juiced up the over to -115 or -120.

For what it’s worth, the over is 20-15-3 since 2005 in games with a total of 13 or higher.

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 13.5 to 14)