MLB Sharp Report: Red Sox-Twins, White-Sox Cubs Lead Wednesday’s Pro Bets

MLB Sharp Report: Red Sox-Twins, White-Sox Cubs Lead Wednesday’s Pro Bets article feature image
Credit:

Minnesota Twins right fielder Max Kepler celebrates a home run. Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Wednesday, headlined by Red Sox-Twins (8:10 p.m. ET) and White Sox-Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Marlins-Cardinals (8:15 p,m. ET).
  • Using the tools at Sports Insights and The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys went a tough-luck 1-2 yesterday, cashing the Brewers-Padres under but losing the Rockies-D-backs over and Red Sox moneyline. The Sox loss was the killer, as Boston coughed up several leads and fell to the Twins 4-3 in a 17-inning marathon. Nothing better than staying up until 2 a.m. ET to watch your bet lose in agonizing fashion.

Overall, Tuesday was a profitable night for contrarian bettors as underdogs went 8-6 (+6.93 units), teams receiving less than 50% of bets went 9-4 (+9.74 units) and unders went 8-4-2 (+3.74 units).

After analyzing Wednesday’s massive 16-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a trio of MLB games.


>> All odds as of 3 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Chicago White Sox (35-36) @ Chicago Cubs (39-33)

8:05 p.m. ET | Lucas Giolito (10-1, 2.22 ERA) vs. Jon Lester (5-5, 4.08 ERA) 

The White Sox cashed bigly for contrarians in last night’s series opener, winning 3-1 as +196 dogs (only 32% of bets). Normally, public bettors love hammering the Cubs at Wrigley, but tonight they’re taking one look at the pitching matchup and that’s all they need to know. Back the young stud ace at plus-money.

But wiseguys know that if a line looks too good to be true, it probably is.

This interleague Windy City rivalry opened with the Cubs listed as a -130 home favorite and the White Sox a +120 underdog. Currently, 60% of bettors are rushing to bet Giolito as a dog, yet we’ve seen this line move away from the White Sox (+120 to +130) and toward Lester and the Cubbies (-130 to -140).

Why would the oddsmakers hand out a juicier price to Southsider bettors if the public is already betting them?

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed wiseguys crush the Cubs at -126, triggering market-wide steam in their favor.

This “fade the trendy dog” spot has been a big moneymaker for sharps in 2019, as unpopular favorites (receiving less than 50% of bets) have gone 98-63 (60.9%) this season, winning 16.34 units with a 10.1% return on investment (ROI). This also happens to be the most heavily bet game of the night, providing increased contrarian value for sharps backing the Cubs.

Sharp angle: Cubs (moved from -130 to -140)

Boston Red Sox (40-35) @ Minnesota Twins (48-24)

8:10 p.m. ET | Eduardo Rodriguez (7-4, 4.67 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (7-3, 2.70 ERA) 

These American League heavyweights have split the first two games of the series, with the Twins winning an epic 4-3 marathon in 17 innings last night.

In tonight’s rubber game, sharps and squares are largely on the same page.

Minnesota opened as a short -114 home favorite, with Boston listed as a +105 underdog. Currently 61% of bets are backing the Twins, but they’re also receiving 83% of dollars. This lopsided action from both casual and professional bettors has forced oddsmakers to adjust Minnesota from -114 to -120.

We’ve also noticed a big steam move on Minnesota and not a single move on Boston, further evidence of sharps siding with the home favorite.

So far this season, favorites in conference games (non-interleague) with totals of 9 or more have gone 300-163 (64.8%), winning 45.65 units for a 9.9% ROI.

Minnesota has also been the most profitable home team in MLB this season, going 31-11 at Target Field (+8.49 units, 20.2% ROI).

Sharp angle: Twins (moved from -114 to -120)

Miami Marlins (26-45) @ St. Louis Cardinals (37-35) 

8:15 p.m. ET | Trevor Richards (3-7, 3.68 ERA) vs. Daniel Poncedeleon (0-0, 2.00 ERA)

Casual bettors don’t know which way to go with this over/under. They love rooting for runs and sweating overs, but recency bias has them worried after Miami won 6-0 last night, handing under bettors an easy win.

Wiseguys, on the other hand, have taken a clear position.

This total opened at 8. Currently 54% of bets are taking the over, indicating an ever-so-slight public lean. However, the over also accounts for a whopping 82% of dollars, signaling big backing from pro dime ($1000) bettors.

This heavy smart over money pushed the total up to 8.5.

We’ve tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the over, with three moves coming at 8 and a fourth at 8.5. The last move is most important, as even though the total rose, sharps still got down on the over, indicating supreme wiseguy confidence.

A cherry on top for over bettors: The wind is blowing out to dead center at 7-9 mph. According to our Bet Labs software, when the wind is blowing out to left, right or center at 7 mph or more at Busch Stadium, the over has hit 57% of the time, winning 18.14 units with a 12% ROI.

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 8 to 8.5)