MLB Friday Weather: Assessing Winds in Chicago, Cleveland

MLB Friday Weather: Assessing Winds in Chicago, Cleveland article feature image
Credit:

Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mike Clevinger.

  • Using the Action Network's betting tools, we've analyzed how weather is impacting Brewers-Cubs (2:20 p.m. ET) and Angels-Indians (7:10).

Milwaukee Brewers (Z. Davies) @ Chicago Cubs (J. Quintana)

2:20 p.m. ET

O/U: 9 (u-120)

Baseball is back at Wrigley, folks. Last time the Cubbies were at home, there were a couple of very disappointing outcomes despite record-breaking weather conditions. The nationwide heat wave has passed, though, and conditions have been a bit more boring this week.

The wind will, however, be a factor in Chicago today. However, Wrigley’s been a bit uncharacteristic this year when it comes to betting on over/unders.

Wind-out-overs

  • 2005-2018: 77-44-4 (63.6%)
  • 2019: 1-7 (12.5%)

Wind-in-unders

  • 2005-2018: 99-69-12 (58.9%)
  • 2019: 7-6-1 (53.8%)

You’d think overs would be crushing this year with all the homers being hit, but nope, not at Wrigley when the wind is blowing out.

Luckily, today you won’t need to have that internal struggle about whether or not you think the wind-out-overs will return to form because the wind is blowing in. Perhaps you guessed that from the total, which would probably have been 10+ with the wind blowing out.

At 8 mph, it’s not going to be blowing hats off of players’ heads, but it is enough to impact fly balls that would otherwise make it into the first few rows of the bleachers. Here’s how unders have done in specific wind speed ranges per Bet Labs:

  • 0-5 mph: 33-26-4
  • 6-10 mph: 52-35-6
  • 11+ mph: 21-14-3

What’s perhaps more important, though, is the total. This bad boy opened at 8.5 (u-115) and actually moved up to 9 (u-120) in the early going. Games that have opened between 8 and 8.5 have gone under 72.2% of the time, while all other games have gone under just 48% of the time.

Los Angeles Angels (D. Peters) @ Cleveland Indians (M. Clevinger)

7:10 p.m. ET

O/U: 9 (o-115)

As we head farther east for the night slate, the wind will also be blowing in at Progressive Field. Conditions will be very similar, in fact, with temps around 80 degrees in both parks and wind speeds around 8 mph.

Cleveland is not known for it’s windy conditions like Chicago is, though, nor should it be. While wind-in-unders have hit at nearly a 60% rate historically at Wrigley, they are just 80-72-5 (52.6%) at Progressive Field, which is essentially break-even for bettors.

Dillon Peters of the Angels will need all the help he can get from the wind, as the new powerful Indians lineup could potentially tee off on him. His ERA is just 3.06 this year in 17.2 innings of work, but there’s a reason why he hasn’t been able to stick in the majors since debuting in 2017: he’s not good.

Between AAA and the majors this year, he’s allowed 15 homers in 74.2 innings, which is good for nearly two dongs per nine. He also has a BB/9 of 4.81 during his big league career.

A steam move hit this under shortly before 10 a.m. ET, driving the total down from 9.5 to 9 across the market. I’ll personally be laying off this one at that number.

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