MLB Props Odds & Picks: Monday’s 2 Bets for Aaron Nola & Chris Flexen

Our Action Network MLB Player Props team is on a 10-0 run following a very successful week of June 6th.

We look to continue that success by fading two pitchers in the strikeout market on Monday's slate.

Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.

Aaron Nola Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)

I'm very high on the Miami Marlins today. I think the Marlins provide great value at +110 or better with Sandy Alcantara on the mound.

I'm also willing to fade Aaron Nola — at least in this spot on Monday night.

By all accounts, Nola is having a near-career season. His 3.50 ERA is backed up by elite batted ball statistics and a 2.68 xERA. His Strikeout Rates are down slightly, but his CSW Rate is still north of 31% (85th percentile).

But over the last 30 days against RHPs, the Marlins are striking out at the 14th-lowest rate (21.7%) while posting the sixth-highest wRC+ (125). This is not the pitiful offense of last season or the one that struck out at the third-highest rate in 2021. These Marlins are far more dangerous.

Nola generates most of his whiffs off his curveball and changeup, but his spin rate isn't elite on either pitch, and his fastball velocity ranks in just the 25th percentile of qualified pitchers. Overall, he ranks in just the 47th percentile of both Swinging-Strike Rate and Whiff Rate.

Moreover, while Nola is currently striking out about 30% of batters faced, those numbers actually drop against current Marlin batters. Over 67 lifetime PAs against players in the lineup, his Strikeout Rate is just 19% while his Whiff rate is only 21%.

Guys like Miguel Rojas, Jesus Aguilar, and Jesus Sanchez have seen successful against Nola. I'm willing to back those three and the rest of the Marlins lineup to post a few runs on the Phillies ace while keeping his strikeout total below this high number.

Nola has failed to cash this number in his last two starts (Giants, Brewers), and our Action Labs Player Props tool projects him for just 6.1 strikeouts today. That gives us enough value to take the under with no juice attached.

Pick: Under 6.5 Ks (+100)

Action Labs Grade: 8/10

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Chris Flexen Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Chris Flexen has finally strung together an okay series of starts. In his last three appearances — two against Houston and one against Baltimore — Flexen has tossed 18 2/3 innings while allowing five ER.

But, Flexen failed to cash this over in two of those starts and now has stayed under 4.5 Ks in seven of his 11 appearances this season. His 22.8% CSW rate ranks in just the sixth percentile of pitchers, and he's currently striking out just six batters per nine innings.

Flexen just isn't missing bats, and instead, he's getting pummeled to the tune of a 5.33 xERA. His batted ball statistics aren't pretty, and his Baseball Savant page paints an even uglier portrait.

Image credit: Baseball Savant

Meanwhile, he's facing a Twins lineup that strikes out at a league-average rate against righties (21.9%) and has posted the highest wRC+ over the last month (131). The Twins are mashing.

Flexen faced the Twins earlier this year. He tossed 91 pitches across 4 1/3 innings while striking out three, walking three, and allowing three runs. He earned the loss with an xFIP that outing of 6.86.

I'm not confident in Flexen today at all. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects him for just 3.9 strikeouts Monday night, and I will be all over the under at -150 or better.

Pick: Under 4.5 Ks

Action Labs Grade: 7/10